|
Post by Nite on Apr 22, 2024 16:17:08 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Rangers13 on Apr 22, 2024 16:20:48 GMT -5
What is the meter for Jones success in 2024?
|
|
|
Post by Shadow on Apr 22, 2024 16:32:22 GMT -5
Let me spare you the click, someone named Maurice Moton believes:
1. There's 10% chance that Caleb Williams is a bust. 2. There's 20% chance that Jayden Daniels is a bust. 3. There's 33% chance that Drake Maye is a bust. 4. There's 51% chance that JJ McCarthy is a bust. 5. There's 65% chance that Michael Penix is a bust. 6. There's 75% chance that Bo Nix is a bust.
|
|
|
Post by IrishMike on Apr 22, 2024 16:36:55 GMT -5
Let me spare you the click, someone named Maurice Moton believes: 1. There's 10% chance that Caleb Williams is a bust. 2. There's 20% chance that Jayden Daniels is a bust. 3. There's 33% chance that Drake Maye is a bust. 4. There's 51% chance that JJ McCarthy is a bust. 5. There's 65% chance that Michael Penix is a bust. 6. There's 75% chance that Bo Nix is a bust. Four posts in and this dude is already a quality member.
Caleb Williams has the highest bust potential IMO. My method takes into account their hype and likely draft position. I also don't factor Penix or Nix because people will take them knowing they're a big risk.
|
|
|
Post by IrishMike on Apr 22, 2024 16:37:53 GMT -5
What is the meter for Jones success in 2024? Even if it was zero I still wouldn't pass on one of these WRs for JJ. Daniels or Maye? Sure.
|
|
|
Post by Nick6475 on Apr 22, 2024 16:39:33 GMT -5
Let me spare you the click, someone named Maurice Moton believes: 1. There's 10% chance that Caleb Williams is a bust. 2. There's 20% chance that Jayden Daniels is a bust. 3. There's 33% chance that Drake Maye is a bust. 4. There's 51% chance that JJ McCarthy is a bust. 5. There's 65% chance that Michael Penix is a bust. 6. There's 75% chance that Bo Nix is a bust. Yay, another made up metric that just so happens to coincide with the order in which most "experts" think the QBs will be selected. Draft can't get here soon enough.
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 22, 2024 16:45:24 GMT -5
Let me spare you the click, someone named Maurice Moton believes: 1. There's 10% chance that Caleb Williams is a bust. 2. There's 20% chance that Jayden Daniels is a bust. 3. There's 33% chance that Drake Maye is a bust. 4. There's 51% chance that JJ McCarthy is a bust. 5. There's 65% chance that Michael Penix is a bust. 6. There's 75% chance that Bo Nix is a bust. So, there is a 245% probability this class will be a bust. I agree.
|
|
|
Post by Nick6475 on Apr 22, 2024 16:50:21 GMT -5
Let me spare you the click, someone named Maurice Moton believes: 1. There's 10% chance that Caleb Williams is a bust. 2. There's 20% chance that Jayden Daniels is a bust. 3. There's 33% chance that Drake Maye is a bust. 4. There's 51% chance that JJ McCarthy is a bust. 5. There's 65% chance that Michael Penix is a bust. 6. There's 75% chance that Bo Nix is a bust. So, there is a 245% probability this class will be a bust. I agree. Not sure if you are joking TEM, but you would need to multiply the percentages, not add them. Chance all 6 QBs bust: 0.2% Chance all 6 QBs don't bust: 2.1%
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 22, 2024 17:59:43 GMT -5
So, there is a 245% probability this class will be a bust. I agree. Not sure if you are joking TEM, but you would need to multiply the percentages, not add them. Chance all 6 QBs bust: 0.2% Chance all 6 QBs don't bust: 2.1% I was definitely Joking. Statistically on a 25 year sample the bust rates among QB is 40% On a 10 Year sample it is 32%. On a per round bases QB has a 63% success rate in the first round. When you consider only 9% of the first-round picks in the cap era are QBs. An average of 3 QBs taken in every 1 round. 63% of 3 = 2. 43% of 9% are taken with in the first 3 picks. When you consider O-line is 83% LB is 70% TE is 67%, secondary is 64% success rates in the 1st round. QB is not optimal. In subsequent rounds bust rates exponentially increase. 2nd round success rate is 27% 3rd Round success rate is 17% 3rd round success rate is 8% 4th round success rate is under 1% 5th round success rate is under 1% 6h round success rate is 6% ( Brady) 7th round success rate is 6% ( Perdy) The triple stat worst picks in the first round: WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) Literally a coin flip. Stats are bases upon players that were starters for a majority of their careers. This also has to be taken into consideration. More latitude on wait and see is given to day one and day 2 picks then day 3.
|
|
|
Post by giantbob71 on Apr 22, 2024 18:29:43 GMT -5
Not sure if you are joking TEM, but you would need to multiply the percentages, not add them. Chance all 6 QBs bust: 0.2% Chance all 6 QBs don't bust: 2.1% I was definitely Joking. Statistically on a 25 year sample the bust rates among QB is 40% On a 10 Year sample it is 32%. On a per round bases QB has a 63% success rate in the first round. When you consider only 9% of the first-round picks in the cap era are QBs. An average of 3 QBs taken in every 1 round. 63% of 3 = 2. 43% of 9% are taken with in the first 3 picks. When you consider O-line is 83% LB is 70% TE is 67%, secondary is 64% success rates in the 1st round. QB is not optimal. In subsequent rounds bust rates exponentially increase. 2nd round success rate is 27% 3rd Round success rate is 17% 3rd round success rate is 8% 4th round success rate is under 1% 5th round success rate is under 1% 6h round success rate is 6% ( Brady) 7th round success rate is 6% ( Perdy) The triple stat worst picks in the first round: WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) Literally a coin flip. Stats are bases upon players that were starters for a majority of their careers. This also has to be taken into consideration. More latitude on wait and see is given to day one and day 2 picks then day 3. Both Dak and Cousins were 4th rounders (off the top of my head)...1% seems really low?
|
|
|
Post by Rangers13 on Apr 22, 2024 18:53:13 GMT -5
Not sure if you are joking TEM, but you would need to multiply the percentages, not add them. Chance all 6 QBs bust: 0.2% Chance all 6 QBs don't bust: 2.1% I ]When you consider O-line is 83% so the Giants are hitting at 33% with Thomas, Neal and Flowers. Maybe 50% if we add Pugh Awesome
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 22, 2024 18:53:43 GMT -5
I was definitely Joking. Statistically on a 25 year sample the bust rates among QB is 40% On a 10 Year sample it is 32%. On a per round bases QB has a 63% success rate in the first round. When you consider only 9% of the first-round picks in the cap era are QBs. An average of 3 QBs taken in every 1 round. 63% of 3 = 2. 43% of 9% are taken with in the first 3 picks. When you consider O-line is 83% LB is 70% TE is 67%, secondary is 64% success rates in the 1st round. QB is not optimal. In subsequent rounds bust rates exponentially increase. 2nd round success rate is 27% 3rd Round success rate is 17% 3rd round success rate is 8% 4th round success rate is under 1% 5th round success rate is under 1% 6h round success rate is 6% ( Brady) 7th round success rate is 6% ( Perdy) The triple stat worst picks in the first round: WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) Literally a coin flip. Stats are bases upon players that were starters for a majority of their careers. This also has to be taken into consideration. More latitude on wait and see is given to day one and day 2 picks then day 3. Both Dak and Cousins were 4th rounders (off the top of my head)...1% seems really low? I the past 24 seasons 2000-2024 90 QBs taken if the 4th 1-2% very low after the 3rd with Comp picks averaging 40- 45 pick per round. I skew the draft when it come to percentages, The draft is realy 8 rounds, 45 in the 5th 20 in the 6th 15 in the 7th
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 22, 2024 18:54:11 GMT -5
I ]When you consider O-line is 83% so the Giants are hitting at 33% with Thomas, Neal and Flowers. Maybe 50% if we add Pugh Awesome We swing and miss
|
|
56rc
Rookie
Posts: 73
|
Post by 56rc on Apr 22, 2024 19:05:08 GMT -5
Let me spare you the click, someone named Maurice Moton believes: 1. There's 10% chance that Caleb Williams is a bust. 2. There's 20% chance that Jayden Daniels is a bust. 3. There's 33% chance that Drake Maye is a bust. 4. There's 51% chance that JJ McCarthy is a bust. 5. There's 65% chance that Michael Penix is a bust. 6. There's 75% chance that Bo Nix is a bust. I should have read further before giving ole MM another page click.
|
|
|
Post by IrishMike on Apr 22, 2024 19:06:50 GMT -5
I ]When you consider O-line is 83% so the Giants are hitting at 33% with Thomas, Neal and Flowers. Maybe 50% if we add Pugh Awesome Now ask him to define how that stat judges a bust. Almost all of the ones that I have seen, certainly the ones that say OL hit rate is 83% base it on games started. In that case Thomas, Pugh and Flowers are all hits and Neal could be as well. It's a flawed metric because how do you judge if a player was a good pick?
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 22, 2024 19:26:04 GMT -5
so the Giants are hitting at 33% with Thomas, Neal and Flowers. Maybe 50% if we add Pugh Awesome Now ask him to define how that stat judges a bust. Almost all of the ones that I have seen, certainly the ones that say OL hit rate is 83% base it on games started. In that case Thomas, Pugh and Flowers are all hits and Neal could be as well. It's a flawed metric because how do you judge if a player was a good pick? I do not answer to you or here to teach you. Look for yourself, You want to learn stats. Figure it out. Decipher the data I mined, I did already, because I have an entire other workbook with conclusions. Here is the 174000 cells of data over 58 sheets,. Ya know a sample size. link
|
|
|
Post by IrishMike on Apr 22, 2024 19:36:29 GMT -5
Now ask him to define how that stat judges a bust. Almost all of the ones that I have seen, certainly the ones that say OL hit rate is 83% base it on games started. In that case Thomas, Pugh and Flowers are all hits and Neal could be as well. It's a flawed metric because how do you judge if a player was a good pick? I do not answer to you or here to teach you. Look for yourself, You want to learn stats. Figure it out. Decipher the data I mined, I did already, because I have an entire other workbook with conclusions. Here is the 174000 cells of data over 58 sheets,. Ya know a sample size. linkI did not ask you anything nor ask you to teach me anything, hell I didn't even reply to you. I looked through your 174,000 cells of data and none of it says anything about bust rate. That entire thing is about pick probability. That's nice and all but we were talking about busts.
You throwing out "83% bust rate for OL" without even a hint as to how you define a bust is as meaningless as the article saying Caleb Williams has a 10% chance.
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 22, 2024 19:39:24 GMT -5
I do not answer to you or here to teach you. Look for yourself, You want to learn stats. Figure it out. Decipher the data I mined, I did already, because I have an entire other workbook with conclusions. Here is the 174000 cells of data over 58 sheets,. Ya know a sample size. linkI did not ask you anything nor ask you to teach me anything, hell I didn't even reply to you. I looked through your 174,000 cells of data and none of it says anything about bust rate. That entire thing is about pick probability. That's nice and all but we were talking about busts.
You throwing out "83% bust rate for OL" without even a hint as to how you define a bust is as meaningless as the article saying Caleb Williams has a 10% chance.
You actually analyzed the data? WOW That's quick . It took me months. Do you read? Stats are bases upon players that were starters for a majority of their careers.
That is what I wrote in the post made
|
|
|
Post by SG88 on Apr 22, 2024 19:42:58 GMT -5
What is the meter for Jones success in 2024? 1%
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 22, 2024 19:44:39 GMT -5
What is the meter for Jones success in 2024? 1% I think he will have a good season. They brought the OG and OT in . It should help.
|
|
|
Post by IrishMike on Apr 22, 2024 19:44:51 GMT -5
Do you read? Stats are bases upon players that were starters for a majority of their careers. Do you read? That's exactly what I said in my post that you quoted.
"Almost all of the ones that I have seen, certainly the ones that say OL hit rate is 83% base it on games started."
Yes so that 83% success rate for OL includes Ereck Flowers as a success. Fantastic metric.
|
|
|
Post by SG88 on Apr 22, 2024 19:44:57 GMT -5
Let me spare you the click, someone named Maurice Moton believes: 1. There's 10% chance that Caleb Williams is a bust. 2. There's 20% chance that Jayden Daniels is a bust. 3. There's 33% chance that Drake Maye is a bust. 4. There's 51% chance that JJ McCarthy is a bust. 5. There's 65% chance that Michael Penix is a bust. 6. There's 75% chance that Bo Nix is a bust. Not all heroes wear capes. Thank you very much for this!
|
|
|
Post by SG88 on Apr 22, 2024 19:46:10 GMT -5
I think he will have a good season. They brought the OG and OT in . It should help. We will see. I doubt it, but I am a fan of the Giants. His success would be a very welcome surprise and is vital to our success.
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 22, 2024 19:50:25 GMT -5
Do you read? Stats are bases upon players that were starters for a majority of their careers. Do you read? That's exactly what I said in my post that you quoted.
"Almost all of the ones that I have seen, certainly the ones that say OL hit rate is 83% base it on games started."
Yes so that 83% success rate for OL includes Ereck Flowers as a success. Fantastic metric.
You said this Now ask him to define how that stat judge a bust. And I explained that too. If you read it. You obviously didn't . This also has to be taken into consideration. More latitude on wait and see is given to day one and day 2 picks then day 3.That alone suggests the sewed bust rates in later rounds compared to the upper rounds. In stand by my numbers. I do not care if you agree or not. I put in the time and research to back it up.
|
|
|
Post by IrishMike on Apr 22, 2024 19:59:33 GMT -5
You said this Now ask him to define how that stat judge a bust. And I explained that too. If you read it. You obviously didn't . This also has to be taken into consideration. More latitude on wait and see is given to day one and day 2 picks then day 3.That alone suggests the sewed bust rates in later rounds compared to the upper rounds. In stand by my numbers. I do not care if you agree or not. I put in the time and research to back it up. TEM you do understand that "Stats are bases upon players that were starters for a majority of their careers" isn't exactly telling people anything right? I wasn't trying to give you a hard time, it's just pretty damn vague. It's also a very poor way to judge a player. As I said Ereck Flowers started 101 out of 105 games in his career. Does anyone think he wasn't a bust?
Neal has started 20 out of 20 games in his career. So with Thomas, Neal, Pugh and Flowers we are batting 100%.
|
|
|
Post by ocgiant on Apr 22, 2024 20:20:42 GMT -5
Based on the QB Bust front, it supports the Giants going WR and getting top choice there
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 22, 2024 20:42:27 GMT -5
You said this Now ask him to define how that stat judge a bust. And I explained that too. If you read it. You obviously didn't . This also has to be taken into consideration. More latitude on wait and see is given to day one and day 2 picks then day 3.That alone suggests the sewed bust rates in later rounds compared to the upper rounds. In stand by my numbers. I do not care if you agree or not. I put in the time and research to back it up. TEM you do understand that "Stats are bases upon players that were starters for a majority of their careers" isn't exactly telling people anything right? I wasn't trying to give you a hard time, it's just pretty damn vague. It's also a very poor way to judge a player. As I said Ereck Flowers started 101 out of 105 games in his career. Does anyone think he wasn't a bust?
Neal has started 20 out of 20 games in his career. So with Thomas, Neal, Pugh and Flowers we are batting 100%.
It is not vague. A Bust is picked or singed and doesn't play. Rotation guys play 35% of the snaps at best., A failed roster spot. Parris Campbel, Golladay. We have had a lot of them Play--- start--- whatever you want to call it. If They play it, is success. Some shouldn't but they do. Because there is no better behind them. That is it in a nutshell. Opportunity because of circumstance is a form of success. Being on a shitty team can be beneficial in a career aspect for some.And then there is this, Deven Hester was never a starter and played verry little. Under 30% of the offensive snaps on offense but a great player. Hall of fame player. How do you add a player like that into a standard model. I try based most of my conclusions at 35% of season / career snaps O, D or STs. The data will always be subject to scrutiny. For the simple fact not all picks and FA singings are treated equally, That is a problem for Analytics departments. When the rate a player at the end of the season. This is the main problem between stats and opinion. He sucked, yet he played. One is statistical data. The other is opinion. That is one of the problems with compiling data with success rates, That is philosophical problem most sports media analysts have. They claim He's a Bust, But he played a majority of snaps. That is an oxymoron. That is why most opinions as facts believers hate stats including sports media analysts. All of it has to incorporated into the output it is a challenge to get as close to the truth as possible, PS: It is a proven fact not just in football but in any career. You can suck at what you do and still have success.
|
|
|
Post by giantbob71 on Apr 22, 2024 21:37:40 GMT -5
Both Dak and Cousins were 4th rounders (off the top of my head)...1% seems really low? I the past 24 seasons 2000-2024 90 QBs taken if the 4th 1-2% very low after the 3rd with Comp picks averaging 40- 45 pick per round. I skew the draft when it come to percentages, The draft is realy 8 rounds, 45 in the 5th 20 in the 6th 15 in the 7th Must be a lot of comp picks? According to this site there were 34 QBs taken, in the 4th round, over that time? www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb
|
|
|
Post by Nite on Apr 22, 2024 22:51:48 GMT -5
What is the meter for Jones success in 2024? It is not more than or less than or an approximation then of the values calculated to be approximately 22/7 somewhat %
|
|
|
Post by TEM on Apr 23, 2024 4:08:15 GMT -5
I the past 24 seasons 2000-2024 90 QBs taken if the 4th 1-2% very low after the 3rd with Comp picks averaging 40- 45 pick per round. I skew the draft when it come to percentages, The draft is realy 8 rounds, 45 in the 5th 20 in the 6th 15 in the 7th Must be a lot of comp picks? According to this site there were 34 QBs taken, in the 4th round, over that time? www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qbComo picks are ambitious in some drafts 205 can be a 6 round pick jn others a 7th.
|
|