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Post by TEM on May 13, 2020 10:12:45 GMT -5
I see it from a different point of view. The lock down is going into week 10. (68 days) If it was working. It should have cut the cases by two thirds at minimum. Form my point of view the decrease is equated to a smaller pool to infect. ( There is a portion of the population that has immunity to the virus through exposure to it). That’s logical assuming the lockdown was complete and mandated, it was neither so while some folks may have followed it, many others may not have. I just have no way of corralling all those variables to know with certainty. There the arrogant assumption of controlling mother nature. As with Earthquakes, Weather , Volcanos . No matter what measures that were applied to circumvent the outcome of those events. Mother nature throws a punch and all the technology that was applied to deflect that blow crumbles. The history over the past 20 years has shown that to be fact. A Pandemic is no different. At this point in our evolution . We do not have the means or technology to stop its progression. All we have accomplished is shooting ourselves in the foot. As I said there is no angle I see this from that is in anyway positive.
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Post by Nite on May 13, 2020 10:45:15 GMT -5
I see it from a different point of view. The lock down is going into week 10. (68 days) If it was working. It should have cut the cases by two thirds at minimum. Form my point of view the decrease is equated to a smaller pool to infect. ( There is a portion of the population that has immunity to the virus through exposure to it). That’s logical assuming the lockdown was complete and mandated, it was neither so while some folks may have followed it, many others may not have. I just have no way of corralling all those variables to know with certainty. Or even a small measure of actual verifiable knowledge (very small)
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robl
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Post by robl on May 13, 2020 15:23:50 GMT -5
That’s logical assuming the lockdown was complete and mandated, it was neither so while some folks may have followed it, many others may not have. I just have no way of corralling all those variables to know with certainty. There the arrogant assumption of controlling mother nature. As with Earthquakes, Weather , Volcanos . No matter what measures that were applied to circumvent the outcome of those events. Mother nature throws a punch and all the technology that was applied to deflect that blow crumbles. The history over the past 20 years has shown that to be fact. A Pandemic is no different. At this point in our evolution . We do not have the means or technology to stop its progression. All we have accomplished is shooting ourselves in the foot. As I said there is no angle I see this from that is in anyway positive. Don’t we evacuate low lying areas when meteorologists say a hurricane is coming?
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robl
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Post by robl on May 13, 2020 15:26:28 GMT -5
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Post by Sarcasman on May 13, 2020 15:57:36 GMT -5
That’s logical assuming the lockdown was complete and mandated, it was neither so while some folks may have followed it, many others may not have. I just have no way of corralling all those variables to know with certainty. There the arrogant assumption of controlling mother nature. As with Earthquakes, Weather , Volcanos . No matter what measures that were applied to circumvent the outcome of those events. Mother nature throws a punch and all the technology that was applied to deflect that blow crumbles. The history over the past 20 years has shown that to be fact. A Pandemic is no different. At this point in our evolution . We do not have the means or technology to stop its progression. All we have accomplished is shooting ourselves in the foot. As I said there is no angle I see this from that is in anyway positive. Nor me. I also consider nothing about this pandemic to be positive. I don’t ordinarily hold such radical positions.
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Post by Sarcasman on May 13, 2020 15:59:23 GMT -5
That’s logical assuming the lockdown was complete and mandated, it was neither so while some folks may have followed it, many others may not have. I just have no way of corralling all those variables to know with certainty. Or even a small measure of actual verifiable knowledge (very small) That’s true as well. I know as little as you do about it.
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Post by TEM on May 13, 2020 16:35:02 GMT -5
There the arrogant assumption of controlling mother nature. As with Earthquakes, Weather , Volcanos . No matter what measures that were applied to circumvent the outcome of those events. Mother nature throws a punch and all the technology that was applied to deflect that blow crumbles. The history over the past 20 years has shown that to be fact. A Pandemic is no different. At this point in our evolution . We do not have the means or technology to stop its progression. All we have accomplished is shooting ourselves in the foot. As I said there is no angle I see this from that is in anyway positive. Don’t we evacuate low lying areas when meteorologists say a hurricane is coming? The Japanese were doing the same thing in the 17th century. You are missing the point no matter what we have done. The destruction is constant as it pertains to the severity of the event . Taming mother nature is a fools errand. This will be unstoppable until it runs its course.
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robl
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Post by robl on May 13, 2020 17:38:46 GMT -5
Don’t we evacuate low lying areas when meteorologists say a hurricane is coming? The Japanese were doing the same thing in the 17th century. You are missing the point no matter what we have done. The destruction is constant as it pertains to the severity of the event . Taming mother nature is a fools errand. This will be unstoppable until it runs its course. The same could have been said about AIDS and now we have HAART and the epidemic is controlled. Lets fight this.
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Post by TEM on May 13, 2020 17:48:43 GMT -5
The Japanese were doing the same thing in the 17th century. You are missing the point no matter what we have done. The destruction is constant as it pertains to the severity of the event . Taming mother nature is a fools errand. This will be unstoppable until it runs its course. The same could have been said about AIDS and now we have HAART and the epidemic is controlled. Lets fight this. Aids did not effect every American. It was not a pandemic. It affected a small percentage of the population only. If it was a pandemic 20 to 50% of the population would have died in the early 80.
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Turbo
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Post by Turbo on May 14, 2020 1:54:40 GMT -5
99.7% of people that get this virus survive. Is it scam? No, I don't think so, but sheltering in place was meant to "flatten the curve". The goal was to ensure hospitals did not get overrun. To that end we have been successful. As TEM says, this will not end until it runs its course. Chances are 50-70% of the population will need to get it before it's "over". This is what happened in 1918 and what will need to happen again. And if this thing mutates, we will have to learn to deal with it like we do other things. No one freaks out anymore about the Swine Flu or Bird Flu, nor should they. While this isn't a flu, it has a similar mortality rate. Collapsing the global economy and destroying the livelihoods of a quarter of the world population for an illness that over 99% survive, however, doesn't make a lot of sense.
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robl
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Post by robl on May 14, 2020 7:03:03 GMT -5
To have a 2020 season they need testing and lots of it. Prior to training camp everyone should have a throat swab and I would also consider antibody testing as well at the start. One then could swab weekly and also offer take home swabs to employees families. False positives and negatives could be a problem but this is what I would try.
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Post by TEM on May 14, 2020 7:24:33 GMT -5
It has begun emoji www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/13/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-tony-evers-coronavirus-orders/5179205002/ The Wisconsin Supreme Court’s conservative majority sided with Republican legislators and struck down on Wednesday the decision by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’s administration to extend a stay-at-home order intended to quell the spread of the novel coronavirus.
The 4-3 decision limits Evers’s ability to make statewide rules during emergencies such as a global pandemic, instead requiring him to work with the state legislature on how the state should handle the outbreak.
The justices wrote that the court was not challenging the governor’s power to declare emergencies, “but in the case of a pandemic, which lasts month after month, the Governor cannot rely on emergency powers indefinitely.”
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Post by TCHOF on May 14, 2020 7:28:40 GMT -5
To have a 2020 season they need testing and lots of it. Prior to training camp everyone should have a throat swab and I would also consider antibody testing as well at the start. One then could swab weekly and also offer take home swabs to employees families. False positives and negatives could be a problem but this is what I would try. I don't get this whole testing requirement. There are plenty of instances where someone tests negative one day and positive the next. They would literally have to test every player and team employee every day for the whole season for testing to really work. Not sure that this is feasible.
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Post by TEM on May 14, 2020 8:06:56 GMT -5
To have a 2020 season they need testing and lots of it. Prior to training camp everyone should have a throat swab and I would also consider antibody testing as well at the start. One then could swab weekly and also offer take home swabs to employees families. False positives and negatives could be a problem but this is what I would try. I don't get this whole testing requirement. There are plenty of instances where someone tests negative one day and positive the next. They would literally have to test every player and team employee every day for the whole season for testing to really work. Not sure that this is feasible. There is talk of testing the entire population every day . I ran some numbers. There is 328 million in the US . Two thirds live on the east and west coasts. 108 million on each coast. If every test takes 5 minuets to conduct . It would take 504 million minuets to conduct a complete population test every day for each coast. To accomplish that in the 15 minuets before work and school every day. One person could test 3 people. It would take 43 million people to test the entire population for each of east and west coasts to allow individuals a timely entrance to classes and work. It is an impossible endeavor to accomplish.
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Turbo
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Post by Turbo on May 14, 2020 15:01:24 GMT -5
To have a 2020 season they need testing and lots of it. Prior to training camp everyone should have a throat swab and I would also consider antibody testing as well at the start. One then could swab weekly and also offer take home swabs to employees families. False positives and negatives could be a problem but this is what I would try. And the sound guys and and the camera guys and trainers, medical staff, stadium staff, concessionaires, fans, etc because one person could give it to everyone. Not tenable...
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Post by Nite on May 14, 2020 17:14:18 GMT -5
I don't get this whole testing requirement. There are plenty of instances where someone tests negative one day and positive the next. They would literally have to test every player and team employee every day for the whole season for testing to really work. Not sure that this is feasible. There is talk of testing the entire population every day . I ran some numbers. There is 328 million in the US . Two thirds live on the east and west coasts. 108 million on each coast. If every test takes 5 minuets to conduct . It would take 504 million minuets to conduct a complete population test every day for each coast. To accomplish that in the 15 minuets before work and school every day. One person could test 3 people. It would take 43 million people to test the entire population for each of east and west coasts to allow individuals a timely entrance to classes and work. It is an impossible endeavor to accomplish. That is the reason why it was recommended, to set an impossible goal in order to keep the current status quo in place.
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Post by Delicreep on May 14, 2020 17:24:53 GMT -5
I don't get this whole testing requirement. There are plenty of instances where someone tests negative one day and positive the next. They would literally have to test every player and team employee every day for the whole season for testing to really work. Not sure that this is feasible. There is talk of testing the entire population every day . I ran some numbers. There is 328 million in the US . Two thirds live on the east and west coasts. 108 million on each coast. If every test takes 5 minuets to conduct . It would take 504 million minuets to conduct a complete population test every day for each coast. To accomplish that in the 15 minuets before work and school every day. One person could test 3 people. It would take 43 million people to test the entire population for each of east and west coasts to allow individuals a timely entrance to classes and work. It is an impossible endeavor to accomplish. TEM...can you tell me where you heard this, if you remember.
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Post by imgrate on May 14, 2020 17:50:24 GMT -5
The same could have been said about AIDS and now we have HAART and the epidemic is controlled. Lets fight this. Aids did not effect every American. It was not a pandemic. It affected a small percentage of the population only. If it was a pandemic 20 to 50% of the population would have died in the early 80. Did you decide that it wasn't a pandemic? www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5531a1.htm
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Post by imgrate on May 14, 2020 17:55:13 GMT -5
why do you think they are increasing?increased testing the virus already had taken a foothold people are not doing as much as the can. Actually many are being down right stupid there is no 100% right answer but carrying on with just common sense would have resulted in so many more dead. That I have no doubt at all about. I do agree with other parts of the country getting back to business though. Believe me I am getting tired of being home. Here is an injection of logic. These two things have been determined A) It can take up to 14 days from exposure to 1st symptom. B) It can take up to 30 days from 1st symptom to the end of last symptom. 44 days . 50 at most (6 -7 weeks) That should include everyone in a household. These numbers are at the large end of the time line. We are in week 9 . That math does not add up. My town is still having more cases every week than we had pre-lock down. As I said that math does not work. If the math does not work . How can the policy be working ? Im confused to what your opinion is. Do you believe that if there were no lockdown/quarantine that there would be just as many people infected?
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Post by TEM on May 14, 2020 18:06:23 GMT -5
There is talk of testing the entire population every day . I ran some numbers. There is 328 million in the US . Two thirds live on the east and west coasts. 108 million on each coast. If every test takes 5 minuets to conduct . It would take 504 million minuets to conduct a complete population test every day for each coast. To accomplish that in the 15 minuets before work and school every day. One person could test 3 people. It would take 43 million people to test the entire population for each of east and west coasts to allow individuals a timely entrance to classes and work. It is an impossible endeavor to accomplish. TEM...can you tell me where you heard this, if you remember. abcnews.go.com/Politics/coronavirus-government-response-updates-americans-returning-work-tested/story?id=70614665 "As the contagious coronavirus appears to have invaded the White House West Wing, ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl asked President Trump at a Rose Garden news conference when everyday Americans will be able to get tested daily as they return to work just as White House staffers now can."
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Post by TEM on May 14, 2020 18:09:24 GMT -5
O Aids did not effect every American. It was not a pandemic. It affected a small percentage of the population only. If it was a pandemic 20 to 50% of the population would have died in the early 80. Did you decide that it wasn't a pandemic? www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5531a1.htmBecause A large percentage of the population was not infected. There has been more people killed by the flu. Why is that not considered a pandemic?
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Post by TEM on May 14, 2020 18:16:25 GMT -5
T Here is an injection of logic. These two things have been determined A) It can take up to 14 days from exposure to 1st symptom. B) It can take up to 30 days from 1st symptom to the end of last symptom. 44 days . 50 at most (6 -7 weeks) That should include everyone in a household. These numbers are at the large end of the time line. We are in week 9 . That math does not add up. My town is still having more cases every week than we had pre-lock down. As I said that math does not work. If the math does not work . How can the policy be working ? Im confused to what your opinion is. Do you believe that if there were no lockdown/quarantine that there would be just as many people infected? We did not need to hit the economy with a sledgehammer. We told the lock down needs to be implemented to flatten the curve. I agreed with that policy. That was accomplished 3 weeks ago. Yet here we are with a new set of rules on why we should not go back to work.
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Post by Delicreep on May 14, 2020 18:16:58 GMT -5
Thanks TEM. I have never seen it in any of the opening pans so I wondered. It's not part of NY phased reopening. I also think Karl was taking a cheap shot with the question: I dislike Trump, but if there is anyone in the US who should be receiving daily testing as well as testing of those around him, it's the President.
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Post by imgrate on May 14, 2020 19:41:27 GMT -5
O Because A large percentage of the population was not infected. There has been more people killed by the flu. Why is that not considered a pandemic? Because the flu is now endemic, and certain strands become pandemic in certain years. One of the goals of containing covid-19 that doesnt get talked about much is keeping it from becoming endemic.
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Post by TEM on May 14, 2020 19:48:00 GMT -5
Because A large percentage of the population was not infected. There has been more people killed by the flu. Why is that not considered a pandemic? Because the flu is now endemic, and certain strands become pandemic in certain years. One of the goals of containing covid-19 that doesnt get talked about much is keeping it from becoming endemic. So what does that have to do with Aids only infecting a very small % of the population? We fattened the curve. It is time to end this. That goal was the initial reason to shut down.
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Post by imgrate on May 14, 2020 19:57:51 GMT -5
Because the flu is now endemic, and certain strands become pandemic in certain years. One of the goals of containing covid-19 that doesnt get talked about much is keeping it from becoming endemic. So what does that have to do with Aids only infecting a very small % of the population? We fattened the curve. It is time to end this. That goal was the initial reason to shut down. You said it (hiv/aids) wasnt a pandemic, I was showing you that is not the case.
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Post by TEM on May 14, 2020 20:01:16 GMT -5
So what does that have to do with Aids only infecting a very small % of the population? We fattened the curve. It is time to end this. That goal was the initial reason to shut down. You said it (hiv/aids) wasnt a pandemic, I was showing you that is not the case. Just because the CDC said so? The same Government agency that was grossly unpaired when we needed them most. I have no faith in anything they say or so.
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Post by imgrate on May 14, 2020 20:17:38 GMT -5
You said it (hiv/aids) wasnt a pandemic, I was showing you that is not the case. Just because the CDC said so? The same Government agency that was grossly unpaired when we needed them most. I have no faith in anything they say or so. Ok, well I don't know what to tell you if you are just going to blatantly ignore the definition of what a pandemic is. www.livescience.com/pandemic.html
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Post by imgrate on May 15, 2020 8:02:33 GMT -5
T Im confused to what your opinion is. Do you believe that if there were no lockdown/quarantine that there would be just as many people infected? We did not need to hit the economy with a sledgehammer. We told the lock down needs to be implemented to flatten the curve. I agreed with that policy. That was accomplished 3 weeks ago. Yet here we are with a new set of rules on why we should not go back to work. I can understand this for sure. What I dont understand is what you mean in earlier posts when you say that "it's not working". Basically from how I am reading your stance, the majority of your posts prior to us quoting each other were saying that it's not working, but now in the post I am quoting it I read it as you are saying that it is working, but the goalposts created by the government have moved.
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Post by TEM on May 15, 2020 9:08:10 GMT -5
TWe did not need to hit the economy with a sledgehammer. We told the lock down needs to be implemented to flatten the curve. I agreed with that policy. That was accomplished 3 weeks ago. Yet here we are with a new set of rules on why we should not go back to work. I can understand this for sure. What I don't understand is what you mean in earlier posts when you say that "it's not working". Basically from how I am reading your stance, the majority of your posts prior to us quoting each other were saying that it's not working, but now in the post I am quoting it I read it as you are saying that it is working, but the goalposts created by the government have moved. What their new parameters are to allow to open the country. It will never work. In a free society. It impossible to force anyone to take a medical test, vaccinated stay locked up for months, years. . If the Government can force compliance with that . It can easily apply that to any forced activity it sees fit to implement. We are on a dark path right as it pertains to personal liberties and freedom . "Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose" IMO: What is going on in parts of this country right now. Is not about a virus. If it was there would be some balance between the forced poverty that is happening and public safety. Why is the economic impact on the lives of a majority not weighted as a high metric in their models? I assume their modeling is built on a game theory . To me they are not imputing all the effective parameters. If the they were the negative impact of not opening up the country would be narrated to the population and just not the negative if it is opened. It also shows if the model is built correctly and those results are published to the population. It gives the people a choice on what course of action the government should take. What is being done with these incomplete models " follow the science" is the buzz phrase . Is just a way to control what truth. Incorrect input will always have incorrect output. The reason all the models have been exorbitantly miscalculating in their predictions is either errors in input or lack of truthful input. Either way those false outputs drove a policy built on misinformation. That my friend is how dictatorships develop.
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