Reading tea leaves. How did so many get it / call it.
Apr 27, 2024 10:31:40 GMT -5
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TEM and McCherry like this
Post by Roosevelt on Apr 27, 2024 10:31:40 GMT -5
How did so many fans get it right? Yet talking heads "draft experts" Was QB, QB,QB
even my stats came up with him as the highest probability @ 31.14%. The next closest was 18.3% for pick 5
The Mock draft contest was 69% accurate on player and 85% on position picked. (Considering the scope on how small sample size is (13), That spectacular when you consider (my stats had 23 players with a % of statistical probability over 5 position groups for the 6 pick.)
Me I went with stats and ignored the noise. I will say this. The stats fell apart after pick 15. (A bit disappointed) I will keep trying. I was expecting 35% on player and 60% on position. But the first 15 picks. I was 45% player and 70% on position . It literally outperformed most draft analysts.
Stats aside.
How did so many non-Football experts get it right?
Joe Schoen:
April 10th, 2024
"We have multiple needs. We are going into Year 3. People assume we're going quarterback, but we have other needs. If the quarterbacks go 1–4, then we're getting the second-best position player, not quarterback, at six, which is OK, too. That player will really help us
This tells me they had no intention in Drafting McCarthy with 6. (ever) That 4th QB was decoy. I believe (an educated guess) they had these 6 players on their board in in this order. They were getting one of them.
My stats had the for the Giants with pick 6 Without moving up
At:
Williams 0.8%
Daniels 7%
Maye 2.7%
Harrison Jr 1%
Nabers 31%
April 18th:
Does Schoen agree with draft pundits hyping this year's wide receivers? "
JOE SCHOEN:
I do think it's a deep receiver draft. I do think there are -- again, they come in different shapes and sizes and speeds, but I do think it's a deep wide receiver draft from top to bottom, depending on what you're looking for. Some added value with guys, the new kickoff rules, the guys that can also do returns. I think there's an added element there too, and there's some receivers that can wear multiple hats, not just as a receiver, but also as a returner. Yeah, I do think it's a good draft."
You pass on that guy, pass on that quarterback, and then he becomes a star for somebody else. Rather than swinging and missing.
JOE SCHOEN:
You've got to be comfortable. We're having all those conversations now. It's not just the quarterback position. There are other positions. Again, I think, when they're all on the same level, a lot of times you've got a corner on this line and a defensive tackle on this line. That's where you take in the team need if you see them equally, in terms of the prospect and the grades you have on them.
You let your board talk to you. You go through all these conversations. Again, we're going to do what's best for the franchise in all of our meetings and all of our preparation and set the board on what's best for the New York Giants.
I'm confident we're going to get a good player next Thursday, whatever position that is, and we'll sleep good at night knowing we did all the preparation and we let the board talk to us.
IMO
These bolded lines are cryptic, but at the same time. They Are saying exactly what I always say. You do not draft a QB to Draft a QB. If any member of the GM's draft team has any reservation on drafting QB X on Pick Z . The GM has to run away from the QB. With that said. If one of the top 3 QBs fell to them or if the FO was able to move up. He would have pulled the trigger.
The giant FO knew who was going to be there.
A) Harrison if AZ moved down to if not the Giants
B) Malik Nabers
You thoughts. How did fans get it correct. Most talking heads get it wrong?
I appreciate your post but when your pick at 6 there aren’t that many possibilities. On top of that, our needs are pretty glaring and there is just so much information out there about the draft prospects.
That’s how someone like myself, who doesn’t follow college ball, or spend any time prior to final week before the draft even thinking about mocking it, could get so lucky in my picks.