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Post by bringsimmsback on Jul 22, 2018 9:03:46 GMT -5
Vegas has the Giants over/under wins at 6.5. PFF thinks they will go lower based on shaky pass rush, shaky secondary and shaky QB (their longer podcast, which I can't find at youtube also lists the OL as a problem). The CBS sports article takes a why they will go over/ why they won't go over approach. I think they are going over. I think Eli's poor play the last few years has had more to do with scheme than Eli and believe the OL will be solid at run blocking and decent at pass protection - this and Barkley getting to 75% of expectations is enough to get them to 7 or 8 wins. If Betcher's past creativity at generating pass rush continues and our secondary bounces back so our defense is average along with what I've said about offense, then 10 wins is possible. All unknowns at this point of course but I have good feeling about Shurmer. www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-overunder-win-totals-giants-dogged-by-vegas-but-dangerous-with-saquon-barkley/ |
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Post by TEM on Jul 22, 2018 9:28:23 GMT -5
Over.
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Post by Jomo on Jul 22, 2018 9:31:46 GMT -5
I always take the over at this time of year.  It's just me and it is why I don't do any serious gambling. |
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Post by ocgiant on Jul 22, 2018 10:08:52 GMT -5
New: GM, Coaches (HC, OC & DC), Players & Starters... really tough to predict but will Giants will be over...
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Post by JoeBigBlue on Jul 22, 2018 10:17:57 GMT -5
I hate to say it, but look at what the Eagles did in just one season. It can be done, and the Giants can do it (win more than 6.5 games.)
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Post by Deplorable on Jul 22, 2018 10:19:34 GMT -5
Uber.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2018 11:09:58 GMT -5
19
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Post by brownelvis54 on Jul 22, 2018 11:28:24 GMT -5
10-6
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Post by TCHOF on Jul 22, 2018 14:27:39 GMT -5
Over ...barely
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2018 14:53:08 GMT -5
That was my natural reaction (7 wins to be exact). But I felt like the way he worded the poll, he was trying to get a certain result. So, I voted under. IMHO...if you had to pick any metric in the world to base your prediction on how many wins a team will get, it would be the Vegas odds. In my experience, they are more accurate than any individual talking head. So, let's say for argument's sake that 6.5 is the best guess for the number of wins the Giants will get next season. Now, ask a whole bunch of New York Giants fans whether the team will win more or less than the most objective measure (the betting market) and...gee, I wonder what the results will be. So far, only two people have said less. I'm assuming the other is the Cowboys fan that's always lurking around here. |
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Post by bringsimmsback on Jul 22, 2018 16:39:43 GMT -5
That was my natural reaction (7 wins to be exact). But I felt like the way he worded the poll, he was trying to get a certain result. So, I voted under. IMHO...if you had to pick any metric in the world to base your prediction on how many wins a team will get, it would be the Vegas odds. In my experience, they are more accurate than any individual talking head. So, let's say for argument's sake that 6.5 is the best guess for the number of wins the Giants will get next season. Now, ask a whole bunch of New York Giants fans whether the team will win more or less than the most objective measure (the betting market) and...gee, I wonder what the results will be. So far, only two people have said less. I'm assuming the other is the Cowboys fan that's always lurking around here. What result do you think I was looking for? I'm asking only because you believe you had to create a more "meaningful" poll and felt the need to change your vote to interfere with the result you think I was trying to get. BTW - you didn't interfere with my actual desired result and, despite your efforts, helped bring about my desired result. Follow up questions: is your attempt at sarcasm undercut by your inaccurate belief you are pointing out something obvious that others aren't getting? What would the impact on any desired discussion of the topic be if I were to answer your sarcasm with my own: "Gee, I wonder why anyone would feel the need to point out polls conducted within a biased group will skew results?" |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2018 17:11:01 GMT -5
That was my natural reaction (7 wins to be exact). But I felt like the way he worded the poll, he was trying to get a certain result. So, I voted under. IMHO...if you had to pick any metric in the world to base your prediction on how many wins a team will get, it would be the Vegas odds. In my experience, they are more accurate than any individual talking head. So, let's say for argument's sake that 6.5 is the best guess for the number of wins the Giants will get next season. Now, ask a whole bunch of New York Giants fans whether the team will win more or less than the most objective measure (the betting market) and...gee, I wonder what the results will be. So far, only two people have said less. I'm assuming the other is the Cowboys fan that's always lurking around here. What result do you think I was looking for? I'm asking only because you believe you had to create a more "meaningful" poll and felt the need to change your vote to interfere with the result you think I was trying to get. BTW - you didn't interfere with my actual desired result and, despite your efforts, helped bring about my desired result. Follow up questions: is your attempt at sarcasm undercut by your inaccurate belief you are pointing out something obvious that others aren't getting? What would the impact on any desired discussion of the topic be if I were to answer your sarcasm with my own: "Gee, I wonder why anyone would feel the need to point out polls conducted within a biased group will skew results?" I feel like I explained my thoughts pretty clearly the first time, so I don't have any interest in getting into a long, drawn-out debate with you. I didn't mean anything as a personal attack, and I'm sorry if you took it as one. It just seemed like a bit of a loaded question, that's all. If 15 people were polled and 14 of them said the Giants would win more than 6.5 games, what does that mean? Does it mean that 14 people think the Giants will go 7-9? Does it mean 14 people think the Giants will go 16-0? It just seems that a question like, "Vegas thinks the Giants will win 6.5 games...how many do you think they'll win?" would lead to a bit more informative results. Just my two cents. |
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Post by Sarcasman on Jul 22, 2018 17:47:40 GMT -5
That was my natural reaction (7 wins to be exact). But I felt like the way he worded the poll, he was trying to get a certain result. So, I voted under. IMHO...if you had to pick any metric in the world to base your prediction on how many wins a team will get, it would be the Vegas odds. In my experience, they are more accurate than any individual talking head. So, let's say for argument's sake that 6.5 is the best guess for the number of wins the Giants will get next season. Now, ask a whole bunch of New York Giants fans whether the team will win more or less than the most objective measure (the betting market) and...gee, I wonder what the results will be. So far, only two people have said less. I'm assuming the other is the Cowboys fan that's always lurking around here. It wasn’t. I agree with you about Vegas odds. I have an over/under baseball bet each year on our respective teams with a friend of mine and it’s always based on Vegas odds, it’s a bit unsettling how accurate they can be. I took the under because I watched this team last year. I expect improvement but a substantial difference for a 3 win team that consistently failed in all four phases of the game is not on my list of likely scenarios. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2018 17:59:39 GMT -5
That was my natural reaction (7 wins to be exact). But I felt like the way he worded the poll, he was trying to get a certain result. So, I voted under. IMHO...if you had to pick any metric in the world to base your prediction on how many wins a team will get, it would be the Vegas odds. In my experience, they are more accurate than any individual talking head. So, let's say for argument's sake that 6.5 is the best guess for the number of wins the Giants will get next season. Now, ask a whole bunch of New York Giants fans whether the team will win more or less than the most objective measure (the betting market) and...gee, I wonder what the results will be. So far, only two people have said less. I'm assuming the other is the Cowboys fan that's always lurking around here. It wasn’t. I agree with you about Vegas odds. I have an over/under baseball bet each year on our respective teams with a friend of mine and it’s always based on Vegas odds, it’s a bit unsettling how accurate they can be. I took the under because I watched this team last year. I expect improvement but a substantial difference for a 3 win team that consistently failed in all four phases of the game is not on my list of likely scenarios. I think that's because people get a whole lot more realistic when there's money on the table. I've heard several posters here boldly predict 10 or 11 wins and a playoff berth for the Giants this coming season. I wonder how many of them would be willing to put a grand down on that. |
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Post by bringsimmsback on Jul 22, 2018 18:05:27 GMT -5
What result do you think I was looking for? I'm asking only because you believe you had to create a more "meaningful" poll and felt the need to change your vote to interfere with the result you think I was trying to get. BTW - you didn't interfere with my actual desired result and, despite your efforts, helped bring about my desired result. Follow up questions: is your attempt at sarcasm undercut by your inaccurate belief you are pointing out something obvious that others aren't getting? What would the impact on any desired discussion of the topic be if I were to answer your sarcasm with my own: "Gee, I wonder why anyone would feel the need to point out polls conducted within a biased group will skew results?" I feel like I explained my thoughts pretty clearly the first time, so I don't have any interest in getting into a long, drawn-out debate with you. I didn't mean anything as a personal attack, and I'm sorry if you took it as one. It just seemed like a bit of a loaded question, that's all. If 15 people were polled and 14 of them said the Giants would win more than 6.5 games, what does that mean? Does it mean that 14 people think the Giants will go 7-9? Does it mean 14 people think the Giants will go 16-0? It just seems that a question like, "Vegas thinks the Giants will win 6.5 games...how many do you think they'll win?" would lead to a bit more informative results. Just my two cents. Fair enough - I don't think the poll results are likely to be informative at all but individual posters responses and explanation could be. I explained my reasoning for why I think they will hit 7 or 8 wins with an outside shot at a couple more: the poll was simply a conversation starter. |
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Post by bringsimmsback on Jul 22, 2018 18:20:23 GMT -5
It wasn’t. I agree with you about Vegas odds. I have an over/under baseball bet each year on our respective teams with a friend of mine and it’s always based on Vegas odds, it’s a bit unsettling how accurate they can be. I took the under because I watched this team last year. I expect improvement but a substantial difference for a 3 win team that consistently failed in all four phases of the game is not on my list of likely scenarios. I think that's because people get a whole lot more realistic when there's money on the table. I've heard several posters here boldly predict 10 or 11 wins and a playoff berth for the Giants this coming season. I wonder how many of them would be willing to put a grand down on that.I I agree with you both that the vegas odds are more objective/realistic but that does not translate 100% into more accurate. More likely to be accurate, yes, but by how much? Especially for teams in flux? The Giants Over/Under last year was 9 and the Jaguars were at 6. The Jaquars, in particular, are a good comparison, I think, because they improved thier Oline and drafted a RB high in last year's draft. They also significantly improved their defense, however. Do we get away with not making too many moves on our defense because of new scheme and players bouncing back to previous year's form? I don't know. But new Coach and changes to our offensive personnel is enough for +4 or 5 wins I think. |
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Post by Sarcasman on Jul 22, 2018 18:25:47 GMT -5
I think that's because people get a whole lot more realistic when there's money on the table. I've heard several posters here boldly predict 10 or 11 wins and a playoff berth for the Giants this coming season. I wonder how many of them would be willing to put a grand down on that.I I agree with you both that the vegas odds are more objective/realistic but that does not translate 100% into more accurate. More likely to be accurate, yes, but by how much? Especially for teams in flux? The Giants Over/Under last year was 9 and the Jaguars were at 6. The Jaquars, in particular, are a good comparison, I think, because they improved thier Oline and drafted a RB high in last year's draft. They also significantly improved their defense, however. Do we get away with not making too many moves on our defense because of new scheme and players bouncing back to previous year's form? I don't know. But new Coach and changes to our offensive personnel is enough for +4 or 5 wins I think. I’d like to think that too but I’m too old to just anoint different as better. Both trenches are far from solid imo, and that’s what separates top teams from everyone else. It’s just too soon. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2018 18:41:59 GMT -5
I feel like I explained my thoughts pretty clearly the first time, so I don't have any interest in getting into a long, drawn-out debate with you. I didn't mean anything as a personal attack, and I'm sorry if you took it as one. It just seemed like a bit of a loaded question, that's all. If 15 people were polled and 14 of them said the Giants would win more than 6.5 games, what does that mean? Does it mean that 14 people think the Giants will go 7-9? Does it mean 14 people think the Giants will go 16-0? It just seems that a question like, "Vegas thinks the Giants will win 6.5 games...how many do you think they'll win?" would lead to a bit more informative results. Just my two cents. Fair enough - I don't think the poll results are likely to be informative at all but individual posters responses and explanation could be. I explained my reasoning for why I think they will hit 7 or 8 wins with an outside shot at a couple more: the poll was simply a conversation starter. OK, well...I agree with your assessment of 7-8 wins (though, my range is more like 6-9). I would probably break that 7-8 win projection down to the objective 6.5-win Vegas prediction plus 1/2 to 1-1/2 additional wins simply because I'm a hopeful Giants fan. The O-line is somewhat improved, though I don't believe Nate Solder is quite the difference-maker some are making him out to be. I think Will Hernandez will ultimately prove to be the most valuable pick in this year's Giant draft class, but it will take time (I know...when does a 2nd-round pick ever turn out to be more valuable than his 1st-round predecessor?). Barkley will break some long runs, but will go more the way of our last great college RB phenom (Ron Dayne). Eli's aging process will continue, though an improved line will make him look slightly better. Evan Engram will continue to improve, and the biggest difference on offense will be a healthy OBJ (assuming, of course, he remains healthy). As far as the defense goes, I think we regressed this past off-season. We have the same crappy kicker, and...who really cares about the punter? I know Dave Gettleman is seen by some here as some sort of football genius, but...I guess I need some glasses. I am optimistic about Pat Shurmur as our new head coach. Unfortunately, a head coach is only as good as the players he's given. |
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Post by Merc on Jul 22, 2018 20:29:20 GMT -5
I like it and this would be another way of sticking it to the Patriots. |
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Post by DonnieYen on Jul 22, 2018 20:46:08 GMT -5
I am going to say 10 wins...
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Post by TEM on Jul 22, 2018 20:48:40 GMT -5
I am going to say 10 wins... I say the same. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2018 22:52:44 GMT -5
I am going to say 10 wins... I say the same. Playoffs? |
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Post by TEM on Jul 23, 2018 7:37:08 GMT -5
I would like to see us make the playoffs. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2018 8:01:14 GMT -5
I would like to see us make the playoffs. I would like to see us go 19-0...I'm asking whether your 10-win prediction includes a trip to the playoffs. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2018 8:07:59 GMT -5
Giants went from 6-10 to 11-5 with Reese just going on a spending spree.
DG is trying to turn this franchise around from 3-13 to ? through the draft and some FA spending. He's got a big uphill battle but I like the things he's done so far. Injuries aside, this team can win 10 or 11 games. Lots of unknowns and things have to go right though.
If they get riddled with injuries again forget it.
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Post by TEM on Jul 23, 2018 8:10:58 GMT -5
I would like to see us make the playoffs. I would like to see us go 19-0...I'm asking whether your 10-win prediction includes a trip to the playoffs. My belief is , we were not as bad as our record. Injuries and the coach not being able to modify his philosophy were major contributors . Once coach lost the team. It spun out of control and losses piled up. This is just my Opinion and it does not mean squat. We are going to have a shaky start because of the new systems 4-4 then we will go 6-2. |
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Post by Delicreep on Jul 23, 2018 9:52:12 GMT -5
I took the under on this one.
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It's just me and it is why I don't do any serious gambling.
