A QB theory ....

[TCHOF]

What is the franchise QB hit rate in the first round? 50-60%

Does it make more sense to:

(1) Draft a guy that you like in this draft without spending a huge amount of draft capital (other than the one first round pick that you use to select him);

or

(2) Wait until next year for a guy you may like a little more, but will have to spend substantial draft capital to get (maybe as many as 3 total first round picks)?

The hit rate on the two different QB's may not be substantially different, but you are spending way more in scenario 2, so the consequences of a failed choice are much, much larger -- the kind of consequences that could cripple the team for years.

Just food for thought ....

[TEM]

IMO: you must pick " your guy" at any cost. You do not pick "any guy" no matter what the circumstance.

[Morehead State]

Apr 25, 2019 9:06:12 GMT -5 TCHOF said:

What is the franchise QB hit rate in the first round? 50-60%

Does it make more sense to:

(1) Draft a guy that you like in this draft without spending a huge amount of draft capital (other than the one first round pick that you use to select him);

or

(2) Wait until next year for a guy you may like a little more, but will have to spend substantial draft capital to get (maybe as many as 3 total first round picks)?

The hit rate on the two different QB's may not be substantially different, but you are spending way more in scenario 2, so the consequences of a failed choice are much, much larger -- the kind of consequences that could cripple the team for years.

Just food for thought ....

In the top 10?  Probably 50% to 60%.

At the back half of the first round?  It's less than 10%.  Aaron Rodgers is one of the few.  So often team reach for QB's later in RD 1.

[snyder55]

Apr 25, 2019 9:06:12 GMT -5 TCHOF said:

What is the franchise QB hit rate in the first round? 50-60%

Does it make more sense to:

(1) Draft a guy that you like in this draft without spending a huge amount of draft capital (other than the one first round pick that you use to select him);

or

(2) Wait until next year for a guy you may like a little more, but will have to spend substantial draft capital to get (maybe as many as 3 total first round picks)?

The hit rate on the two different QB's may not be substantially different, but you are spending way more in scenario 2, so the consequences of a failed choice are much, much larger -- the kind of consequences that could cripple the team for years.

Just food for thought ....

your #1 option is the one I hope will happen for us and I've said as much a few times, when will be a better time for us to do it...

[bringsimmsback]

Apr 25, 2019 9:06:12 GMT -5 TCHOF said:

What is the franchise QB hit rate in the first round? 50-60%

Does it make more sense to:

(1) Draft a guy that you like in this draft without spending a huge amount of draft capital (other than the one first round pick that you use to select him);

or

(2) Wait until next year for a guy you may like a little more, but will have to spend substantial draft capital to get (maybe as many as 3 total first round picks)?

The hit rate on the two different QB's may not be substantially different, but you are spending way more in scenario 2, so the consequences of a failed choice are much, much larger -- the kind of consequences that could cripple the team for years.

Just food for thought ....

The hit rate you mention is for QBs is when a team has a lot of faith in them and drafts them very early (top 5). It actually goes down the less a team believes in them (assuming a correlation between draft position and a team's confidence). That being said, when I looked at the all the QBs drafted since 1998 and used a spreadsheet to check hit rates, I only saw about a 10-15% difference in hit rate between the top of round 1 and the bottom (through pick 26 actually). Given that, I prefer option 1. Some of the best QBs in the game today were picked early but not picked at the top of the draft.

[bringsimmsback]

Apr 25, 2019 9:39:21 GMT -5 Morehead State said:

Apr 25, 2019 9:06:12 GMT -5 TCHOF said:

What is the franchise QB hit rate in the first round? 50-60%

Does it make more sense to:

(1) Draft a guy that you like in this draft without spending a huge amount of draft capital (other than the one first round pick that you use to select him);

or

(2) Wait until next year for a guy you may like a little more, but will have to spend substantial draft capital to get (maybe as many as 3 total first round picks)?

The hit rate on the two different QB's may not be substantially different, but you are spending way more in scenario 2, so the consequences of a failed choice are much, much larger -- the kind of consequences that could cripple the team for years.

Just food for thought ....

In the top 10?  Probably 50% to 60%.

At the back half of the first round?  It's less than 10%.  Aaron Rodgers is one of the few.  So often team reach for QB's later in RD 1.

I don't think the hit rate is 50% to %60 for the top of the round. And as for the back end, do we have to use Rodgers as an example? There weren't too many equal to him picked at the top either.

Another option not really discussed yet is just picking a guy at your spot if you think they are the best player at that point - plenty of good QBs taken between 10 and 32 over the years.

[TEM]

There is a 70% the first QB taken in any draft will receive a 2nd contract from the team that drafts him . After that it is a crapshoot

here is the list I did on the old board ( 1st Qb taken), QBs taken in the first and Qbs that received 2nd contracts ( Irishmikes standard for a franchise QB)

1992
None
2 taken in the 1st round. ( Dave Brown)

1993
Drew Bledsoe 1st overall taken
2 taken in the 1st.

1994
None
2 taken in the first.


1995
Steve McNair 1st overall taken
Kordell Stewart 2nd round
2 taken in the first.


1996
None
0 taken in the first.

1997
Jake Plummer 2nd round
1 taken in the first.

1998
Payten Manning 1st QB taken 2 SB
2 taken in the first

1999
Donovan McNabb 1st Qb taken
Daunte Culpepper 1st round
4 taken in the first


2000
Tom Brady 6th round 5 SB
1 taken in the first


2001
Michael Vick 1st QB taken
1 taken in the first.

2002
David Garrard 4th round pick
3 taken in the 1st round


2003
Carson Palmer 1st QB taken
4 taken in the first.

2004
Eli 1st Qb taken 2 SB
Phil
Ben 2 Sb
3 taken in the first

2005
Alex Smith 1st Qb taken
Arron Rodgers 1 Sb victory
3 taken in the first

2006
None
3 taken in the first

2007
None
2 taken in the first

2008
Matt Ryan 1st QB taken
Joe Flacco 1 SB victory
2 taken in the 1st.

2009
Matthew Stafford 1st QB taken
2 taken in the first

2010
none
2 taken in the first.

2011
Cam Newton 1st Qb taken
Andy Daulton 2nd round
4 taken in the first.

[TCHOF]

Apr 25, 2019 10:11:29 GMT -5 TEM said:

There is a 70% the first QB taken in any draft will receive a 2nd contract from the team that drafts him . After that it is a crapshoot

here is the list I did on the old board ( 1st Qb taken), QBs taken in the first and Qbs that received 2nd contracts ( Irishmikes standard for a franchise QB)

1992
None
2 taken in the 1st round. ( Dave Brown)

1993
Drew Bledsoe 1st overall taken
2 taken in the 1st.

1994
None
2 taken in the first.


1995
Steve McNair 1st overall taken
Kordell Stewart 2nd round
2 taken in the first.


1996
None
0 taken in the first.

1997
Jake Plummer 2nd round
1 taken in the first.

1998
Payten Manning 1st QB taken 2 SB
2 taken in the first

1999
Donovan McNabb 1st Qb taken
Daunte Culpepper 1st round
4 taken in the first


2000
Tom Brady 6th round 5 SB
1 taken in the first


2001
Michael Vick 1st QB taken
1 taken in the first.

2002
David Garrard 4th round pick
3 taken in the 1st round


2003
Carson Palmer 1st QB taken
4 taken in the first.

2004
Eli 1st Qb taken 2 SB
Phil
Ben 2 Sb
3 taken in the first

2005
Alex Smith 1st Qb taken
Arron Rodgers 1 Sb victory
3 taken in the first

2006
None
3 taken in the first

2007
None
2 taken in the first

2008
Matt Ryan 1st QB taken
Joe Flacco 1 SB victory
2 taken in the 1st.

2009
Matthew Stafford 1st QB taken
2 taken in the first

2010
none
2 taken in the first.

2011
Cam Newton 1st Qb taken
Andy Daulton 2nd round
4 taken in the first.

Good info.  Thanks!

[bringsimmsback]

Apr 25, 2019 10:26:35 GMT -5 TCHOF said:

Apr 25, 2019 10:11:29 GMT -5 TEM said:

There is a 70% the first QB taken in any draft will receive a 2nd contract from the team that drafts him . After that it is a crapshoot

here is the list I did on the old board ( 1st Qb taken), QBs taken in the first and Qbs that received 2nd contracts ( Irishmikes standard for a franchise QB)

1992
None
2 taken in the 1st round. ( Dave Brown)

1993
Drew Bledsoe 1st overall taken
2 taken in the 1st.

1994
None
2 taken in the first.


1995
Steve McNair 1st overall taken
Kordell Stewart 2nd round
2 taken in the first.


1996
None
0 taken in the first.

1997
Jake Plummer 2nd round
1 taken in the first.

1998
Payten Manning 1st QB taken 2 SB
2 taken in the first

1999
Donovan McNabb 1st Qb taken
Daunte Culpepper 1st round
4 taken in the first


2000
Tom Brady 6th round 5 SB
1 taken in the first


2001
Michael Vick 1st QB taken
1 taken in the first.

2002
David Garrard 4th round pick
3 taken in the 1st round


2003
Carson Palmer 1st QB taken
4 taken in the first.

2004
Eli 1st Qb taken 2 SB
Phil
Ben 2 Sb
3 taken in the first

2005
Alex Smith 1st Qb taken
Arron Rodgers 1 Sb victory
3 taken in the first

2006
None
3 taken in the first

2007
None
2 taken in the first

2008
Matt Ryan 1st QB taken
Joe Flacco 1 SB victory
2 taken in the 1st.

2009
Matthew Stafford 1st QB taken
2 taken in the first

2010
none
2 taken in the first.

2011
Cam Newton 1st Qb taken
Andy Daulton 2nd round
4 taken in the first.

Good info.  Thanks!

TEM - can you check your numbers? Based on what you have here (which is a little confusing), I think it is more like 55%. Maybe highlight the years where the first QB taken got that second contract?

Not sure if I'm right but here is what I got with the QBs getting second contracts highlighted (slight projections for current young QBs):

Jarod Goff
Jamis Winston
Blake Bortles
EJ Emmanuel
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford
Mathew Stafford
Matt Ryan
JaMarcuss Russell
Vince Young
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
David Carr
Michael Vick
Chad Pennington
Tim Couch
peyton Manning
Jim Drukenmiller
Steve McNair
Heath Shuler
Drew Bledsoe
David Klinger

I get a 50% hit rate if I did it right.

[TEM]

Apr 25, 2019 10:45:35 GMT -5 bringsimmsback said:

Apr 25, 2019 10:26:35 GMT -5 TCHOF said:

Good info.  Thanks!

TEM - can you check your numbers? Based on what you have here (which is a little confusing), I think it is more like 55%. Maybe highlight the years where the first QB taken got that second contract?

Not sure if I'm right but here is what I got with the QBs getting second contracts highlighted (slight projections for current young QBs):

Jarod Goff
Jamis Winston
Blake Bortles
EJ Emmanuel
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford
Mathew Stafford
Matt Ryan
JaMarcuss Russell
Vince Young
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
David Carr
Michael Vick
Chad Pennington
Tim Couch
peyton Manning
Jim Drukenmiller
Steve McNair
Heath Shuler
Drew Bledsoe
David Klinger

I get a 50% hit rate if I did it right.

When I did the list I want back 20 years ( cap era) to 2011 5 years ( 1st contract and 5th year option) you are correct about Pennington  I missed him. So My Numbers are 75%   for the first taken off the board.  ( in the cap era)  Bortles did receive a 2nd contract from the Jags. 

[bringsimmsback]

Apr 25, 2019 11:40:09 GMT -5 TEM said:

Apr 25, 2019 10:45:35 GMT -5 bringsimmsback said:

TEM - can you check your numbers? Based on what you have here (which is a little confusing), I think it is more like 55%. Maybe highlight the years where the first QB taken got that second contract?

Not sure if I'm right but here is what I got with the QBs getting second contracts highlighted (slight projections for current young QBs):

Jarod Goff
Jamis Winston
Blake Bortles
EJ Emmanuel
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford
Mathew Stafford
Matt Ryan
JaMarcuss Russell
Vince Young
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
David Carr
Michael Vick
Chad Pennington
Tim Couch
peyton Manning
Jim Drukenmiller
Steve McNair
Heath Shuler
Drew Bledsoe
David Klinger

I get a 50% hit rate if I did it right.

When I did the list I want back 20 years ( cap era) to 2011 5 years ( 1st contract and 5th year option) you are correct about Pennington  I missed him. So My Numbers are 75%   for the first taken off the board.  ( in the cap era)  Bortles did receive a 2nd contract from the Jags. 

I know what you did and, unless I'm missing something while I try to recreate your work, I think your math is off. I think you are actually at 55% - may be easier if you just list the QBs you are counting.

[TEM]

Apr 25, 2019 13:37:43 GMT -5 bringsimmsback said:

Apr 25, 2019 11:40:09 GMT -5 TEM said:

When I did the list I want back 20 years ( cap era) to 2011 5 years ( 1st contract and 5th year option) you are correct about Pennington  I missed him. So My Numbers are 75%   for the first taken off the board.  ( in the cap era)  Bortles did receive a 2nd contract from the Jags. 

I know what you did and, unless I'm missing something while I try to recreate your work, I think your math is off. I think you are actually at 55% - may be easier if you just list the QBs you are counting.

You are right I rechecked the numbers. I had 14 0ut of 20  for some reason. After checking it now it is 11 Out of 20 55%.

[bringsimmsback]

Apr 25, 2019 13:42:59 GMT -5 TEM said:

Apr 25, 2019 13:37:43 GMT -5 bringsimmsback said:

I know what you did and, unless I'm missing something while I try to recreate your work, I think your math is off. I think you are actually at 55% - may be easier if you just list the QBs you are counting.

You are right I rechecked the numbers. I had 14 0ut of 20  for some reason. After checking it now it is 11 Out of 20 55%.

Alright, cool. Thanks for rechecking because I thought I was missing something

[Sarcasman]

Apr 25, 2019 9:56:41 GMT -5 bringsimmsback said:

Apr 25, 2019 9:39:21 GMT -5 Morehead State said:

In the top 10?  Probably 50% to 60%.

At the back half of the first round?  It's less than 10%.  Aaron Rodgers is one of the few.  So often team reach for QB's later in RD 1.

I don't think the hit rate is 50% to %60 for the top of the round. And as for the back end, do we have to use Rodgers as an example? There weren't too many equal to him picked at the top either.

Another option not really discussed yet is just picking a guy at your spot if you think they are the best player at that point - plenty of good QBs taken between 10 and 32 over the years.

Those are just examples of GMs believing they know more than the media, staying true to their draft philosophy and then being right, that's all.

It's so much more fun to listen to media morons that know nothing yet can't stop talking. 

[bluebuddha]

I don't know currently the top 4 established qbs with SB wins all were drafted after  15th pick in the 1st round ( Brady, brees, Rodgers, Wilson)

Also below is a list off all the Qbs that played in super bowls since 2000: there is a 52% chance that the QB drafted in round 1 makes it to the superbowl . It goes down if you only include a top 15 pick. It s also 50% for Qbs that won multiple SBs. It looks to a be a total crap shoot boys.

Trent dilfer 1994‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 6
Kerry Collins 1995‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 5

Warner undrafted
McNair ‎1995‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 3


Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Warner undrafted

Johnson 1992‎ / Round: 9 / Pick: 227
Gannon 1987‎ / Round: 4 / Pick: 98

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Delhomme undrafted

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
McNabb 1999‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 2

Rothelesberger 2004 / Round: 1 / Pick: 11
Hasselback 1998‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 187

Manning 1998 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Grossman* 2003‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 22 cutler 2006‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 11

E. Manning 2004‎ / Round: ‎1‎ / Pick: 1
Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199

Rothlesberger 2004 / Round: 1 / Pick: 11
Warner undraafted

Brees 2001‎ / Round: 2 / Pick: 32
P.Manning 1998 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1

Rodgers ‎2005‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 24
Rothlesberger 2004 / Round: 1 / Pick: 11

E. Manning 2004‎ / Round: ‎1‎ / Pick: 1
T. Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199

Flacco ‎2008‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 18
Kap 2011/ Round: 2 / Pick: 45

Wilson 2012‎ / Round: 3 / Pick: 75
P. Manning 1998 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Wilson 2012‎ / Round: 3 / Pick: 75

P.Manning 1998 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
C.Newton 2011 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Ryan 2008‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 3

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Foles 2012‎ / Round: 3 / Pick: 88 * Wentz 2016/ round :1 / pick: 2

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Goff 2016/ Round: 1/ Pick: 1

[Morehead State]

Apr 25, 2019 16:10:25 GMT -5 Sarcasman said:

Apr 25, 2019 9:56:41 GMT -5 bringsimmsback said:

I don't think the hit rate is 50% to %60 for the top of the round. And as for the back end, do we have to use Rodgers as an example? There weren't too many equal to him picked at the top either.

Another option not really discussed yet is just picking a guy at your spot if you think they are the best player at that point - plenty of good QBs taken between 10 and 32 over the years.

Those are just examples of GMs believing they know more than the media, staying true to their draft philosophy and then being right, that's all.

It's so much more fun to listen to media morons that know nothing yet can't stop talking. 

What pisses me off is when GM's think they know more than fans.  They're the worst.

[jimmieray]

Apr 25, 2019 17:56:51 GMT -5 bluebuddha said:

I don't know currently the top 4 established qbs with SB wins all were drafted after  15th pick in the 1st round ( Brady, brees, Rodgers, Wilson)

Also below is a list off all the Qbs that played in super bowls since 2000: there is a 52% chance that the QB drafted in round 1 makes it to the superbowl . It goes down if you only include a top 15 pick. It s also 50% for Qbs that won multiple SBs. It looks to a be a total crap shoot boys.

Trent dilfer 1994‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 6
Kerry Collins 1995‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 5

Warner undrafted
McNair ‎1995‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 3


Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Warner undrafted

Johnson 1992‎ / Round: 9 / Pick: 227
Gannon 1987‎ / Round: 4 / Pick: 98

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Delhomme undrafted

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
McNabb 1999‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 2

Rothelesberger 2004 / Round: 1 / Pick: 11
Hasselback 1998‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 187

Manning 1998 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Grossman* 2003‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 22 cutler 2006‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 11

E. Manning 2004‎ / Round: ‎1‎ / Pick: 1
Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199

Rothlesberger 2004 / Round: 1 / Pick: 11
Warner undraafted

Brees 2001‎ / Round: 2 / Pick: 32
P.Manning 1998 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1

Rodgers ‎2005‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 24
Rothlesberger 2004 / Round: 1 / Pick: 11

E. Manning 2004‎ / Round: ‎1‎ / Pick: 1
T. Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199

Flacco ‎2008‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 18
Kap 2011/ Round: 2 / Pick: 45

Wilson 2012‎ / Round: 3 / Pick: 75
P. Manning 1998 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Wilson 2012‎ / Round: 3 / Pick: 75

P.Manning 1998 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
C.Newton 2011 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Ryan 2008‎ / Round: 1 / Pick: 3

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Foles 2012‎ / Round: 3 / Pick: 88 * Wentz 2016/ round :1 / pick: 2

Brady 2000‎ / Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Goff 2016/ Round: 1/ Pick: 1

I've posted about this before, without all the exact names and numbers - but you have to admit Brady just throws the whole theory off, quite a bit.