Which QB do you go with?

[nick030567]

TD:8
INT:11
Completion %: 57.4%
Yards:2318

QBR: 73.3
W/L:2-5


TD:9
INT:9
Completion %. 59%
Yards:1697
QBR:74.6

W/L:5-4





So these are the stat lines of two anonymous Giants QBs. Which QB do you feel confident going with as a starter going into the next season??

Do you feel confident in either? Or do you prioritize drafting at least 1 QB for competition? At least in a later round?

Just doing this for fun. If you know the QBs you'll probably understand why.


This concerns two players in a particular season and what happened the following season and ensuing years

[nick030567]

The first QB was Kerry Collins. The 2nd, Kent Graham.

Gives perspective into how worthless stats can be

Collins was obviously the better QB regardless of having slightly poorer stats.

But honestly I think this reflects how us sports fans have been socially engineered (by technology and media narratives) into viewing everything thought the perception of numbers. And the talking heads in the media feed this. Everything is geared towards stats and analytics. But sometimes you need to WATCH and KNOW how to watch the game to spot talent. At times stats can provide very little context.

Daniel Jones is a great example. When given an avg amount of time he can make all the throws. He's clutch, and he is one tough mother ****er. After his first two games he was a phenom and he went on to set rookie records.

But fans routinely bring up his stats as reason to question his ability to be a franchise QB.

I just see a talented QB who is trying to blossom in a really tough situation.

[nick030567]

In today's world I can't imagine Giants fans being okay with going into a season with journeyman QB in Kerry Collins who didn't even have better stats nor a better W/L record than Kent Graham.

I mean, I'm totally shocked that all of you seemed fine with them totally relying on Kerry going into 2000.

(I was only 7 years old and didn't really pay attention to football until the 2002 season.)

[TEM]

This the way I see it completion precentage and also yards per attempt are ambiguous stats.

The only way to compare completion precentage where it does not look convoluted is compare the recover corps to the QB

I showed this exact problem with completion precentage this past off season
Most of the Giants recievers were in the mid 60 mid plus and Jones was in the low 60s . Darious Slaton reception precentage. was in the low 50s and is this year as well. One or 2 receivers not running the proper route or dropping the ball will kill the QB's  CP stats.

Yards per attempt is also a bogus stat. It does not account for a bad o-line . QB A) has a fairly descent O-line . He has sufficient time to throw the ball so he has more yards per attempt than QB B) who is running for his life and has to throw the ball away. Completion precentage for a QB applies to this also.

The true measure of the QB is Yards per completion. It places every QB on an equal plane . The QB had enough time to throw the ball. The reciever caught the ball

The statistical model in the cap era shows good QBs Yards Per Completion should fall in between 11.4 and 12.4 career yards per completion.

Kerry Collins was 11.7 higher than Eli, 11.6 in line with Peyton 11.7

Kent Graham is 11.2

A post I made on this exact subject this past week.

with at least a 10 year career

Peyton 11.7
Eli 11.6
Montana 12
Marino 12.3
Brady 11.7
Farve 11.4
Plunket 13.0
Moon 12.4
Unitas 14.0
Tittle 13.6
Fouts 13.0
Dilfer 11.7
Lomax 12.5
Young 12.4
O'Brian 12.0
Simms 13.0
Bradshaw 14.0
Aikmen 11.4


You can see the pattern here. They are all about the same in the cap era . Before the cap era More yards per completion. I found surprising no rules to protect recievers or QBs. It blows the doors off the preconceived notions.

 In the cap era yards per completion are within inches of each other 11.4 to 12.4 yards per completion.

Stafford 11.6
Brees 11.3  
At this point DJ is 10.6
Josh Allen 11.5
Maholmes YPC 12.3
The modle is predictive.



PS: Collins was one tough SOB he played most of the second half of the SB with partial shoulder separation on his throwing arm.