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Post by inthezone on Mar 20, 2024 11:25:04 GMT -5
It's due to the other 3 QBs expecting to be drafted 1,2,3 leaving the Giants with the 4th best of the group. My first calculation within my algorithm ran over 700 Mock drafts that were conducted for the beginning of October through Last Saturday. The consensus has the highest probability for the pick compared out of the top 20 players. Caleb Williams has a 83.2% chance of being taken with the #1 pick. Drake Maye has a 53% chance of being taken with the #2 pick. (30.6% with pick 3) Jayden Daniels has a 36.7% chance of being taken with the # 3 pick. (22.9% with pick 2) Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 54.9% chance of being taken with the #4 pick. (21% with pick 3) Brock Bowers has a 23% chance of being taken with the # 5 pick (12.4% with pick 10) Malik Nabers has a 31% chance of being taken with the # 6 pick (18% with pick 5) Joe Alt has a 39.9% chance of being taken with the # 7 pick (19.2% with pick 5) Dallas Turner has a 28.6% chance of being taken with pick # 8 pick. Rome Odunze has a 22.5% chance of being taken with the # 9 pick. Olumuyiwa Fashanu has a 20.8% chance of being taken with the # 10 Pick (24.6 with pick 7) J.J. McCarthy has a 28.9% chance of being taken with the # 11 pick. Bo Nix has a 25.8% chance of being taken with the # 12 pick. Michael Penix Jr. has a 20.8% chance of being taken with the # 13 pick. These scenarios account for any team that holds the pick. (trades) All other probabilities are in the less than 10%. Mostly in the under 5% to 0% range. For Entertainment only. Use my data at your own risk. I do not want to be responsible for any losses that you may incur.
This is certainly entertaining. I don't see how the data can be used from mocks that didn't have any idea who was picking where or how well players are going to perform during the season.
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wtfjjk
Special Teams
Posts: 1,193
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Post by wtfjjk on Mar 20, 2024 11:25:46 GMT -5
I just hope we're not leaking which of the QBs we want though we may not have much choice as we'll be left with whoever's remaining. Still, I see a problem that hasn't been fixed, it's getting out there who we specifically want and that's a problem if they are doing this despite Schoen's efforts to control it. What other QB could the Giants possibly want with the 6th pick? It doesn't take a team of scientists to figure out it's McCarthy. I've read scenarios where Maye is falling so it'd be a pick'em between the two. But now if a team knows the Giants are for JJ then they could jump ahead if they too like McCarthy that much. That's the scenario that worries me. It happened before with Leonard Floyd, DeVonta Smith, etc.
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Post by IrishMike on Mar 20, 2024 11:28:55 GMT -5
My first calculation within my algorithm ran over 700 Mock drafts that were conducted for the beginning of October through Last Saturday. The consensus has the highest probability for the pick compared out of the top 20 players. Caleb Williams has a 83.2% chance of being taken with the #1 pick. Drake Maye has a 53% chance of being taken with the #2 pick. (30.6% with pick 3) Jayden Daniels has a 36.7% chance of being taken with the # 3 pick. (22.9% with pick 2) Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 54.9% chance of being taken with the #4 pick. (21% with pick 3) Brock Bowers has a 23% chance of being taken with the # 5 pick (12.4% with pick 10) Malik Nabers has a 31.1% chance of being taken with the # 6 pick (18% with pick 5) Your algorithm with 700 mock drafts run came out with the exact mock draft that is the most mocked draft out there.
The only difference I see is sometimes people think the Chargers will go WR or OL and sometimes we take Odunze over Nabers.
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Post by inthezone on Mar 20, 2024 11:29:09 GMT -5
What other QB could the Giants possibly want with the 6th pick? It doesn't take a team of scientists to figure out it's McCarthy. I've read scenarios where Maye is falling so it'd be a pick'em between the two. But now if a team knows the Giants are for JJ then they could jump ahead if they too like McCarthy that much. That's the scenario that worries me. It happened before with Leonard Floyd, DeVonta Smith, etc. You've now fallen for Schoen's ruse. A RB pick at #6 is how they will go!
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Post by TEM on Mar 20, 2024 11:34:40 GMT -5
My first calculation within my algorithm ran over 700 Mock drafts that were conducted for the beginning of October through Last Saturday. The consensus has the highest probability for the pick compared out of the top 20 players. Caleb Williams has a 83.2% chance of being taken with the #1 pick. Drake Maye has a 53% chance of being taken with the #2 pick. (30.6% with pick 3) Jayden Daniels has a 36.7% chance of being taken with the # 3 pick. (22.9% with pick 2) Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 54.9% chance of being taken with the #4 pick. (21% with pick 3) Brock Bowers has a 23% chance of being taken with the # 5 pick (12.4% with pick 10) Malik Nabers has a 31% chance of being taken with the # 6 pick (18% with pick 5) Joe Alt has a 39.9% chance of being taken with the # 7 pick (19.2% with pick 5) Dallas Turner has a 28.6% chance of being taken with pick # 8 pick. Rome Odunze has a 22.5% chance of being taken with the # 9 pick. Olumuyiwa Fashanu has a 20.8% chance of being taken with the # 10 Pick (24.6 with pick 7) J.J. McCarthy has a 28.9% chance of being taken with the # 11 pick. Bo Nix has a 25.8% chance of being taken with the # 12 pick. Michael Penix Jr. has a 20.8% chance of being taken with the # 13 pick. These scenarios account for any team that holds the pick. (trades) All other probabilities are in the less than 10%. Mostly in the under 5% to 0% range. For Entertainment only. Use my data at your own risk. I do not want to be responsible for any losses that you may incur.
This is certainly entertaining. I don't see how the data can be used from mocks that didn't have any idea who was picking where or how well players are going to perform during the season. It's very consistent. Even after the season ended. The last 2 months are 75% of the mocks (525 of 700) It is a large enough sample size to get a qualitative result. I had one scenario that has Michael Penix Jr. go at pick 66 (IMO: my bias agrees with that draft slot.)
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Post by TEM on Mar 20, 2024 11:36:56 GMT -5
My first calculation within my algorithm ran over 700 Mock drafts that were conducted for the beginning of October through Last Saturday. The consensus has the highest probability for the pick compared out of the top 20 players. Caleb Williams has a 83.2% chance of being taken with the #1 pick. Drake Maye has a 53% chance of being taken with the #2 pick. (30.6% with pick 3) Jayden Daniels has a 36.7% chance of being taken with the # 3 pick. (22.9% with pick 2) Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 54.9% chance of being taken with the #4 pick. (21% with pick 3) Brock Bowers has a 23% chance of being taken with the # 5 pick (12.4% with pick 10) Malik Nabers has a 31.1% chance of being taken with the # 6 pick (18% with pick 5) Your algorithm with 700 mock drafts run came out with the exact mock draft that is the most mocked draft out there.
The only difference I see is sometimes people think the Chargers will go WR or OL and sometimes we take Odunze over Nabers.
Exactly what the result should be. I have 2 more equations to apply. History of the pick number. and team need.
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Post by inthezone on Mar 20, 2024 11:39:47 GMT -5
This is certainly entertaining. I don't see how the data can be used from mocks that didn't have any idea who was picking where or how well players are going to perform during the season. It's very consistent. Even after the season ended. The last 2 months are 75% of the mocks (525 of 700) It is a large enough sample size to get a qualitative result. I had one scenario that has Michael Penix Jr. go at pick 66 (IMO: my bias agrees with that draft slot.) If you say so. I would like to see any mock just for the 1st two rounds be 75% correct. There are so many surprises each year that I'm curious why fans give these mock drafts any credibility.
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Post by IrishMike on Mar 20, 2024 11:41:18 GMT -5
Your algorithm with 700 mock drafts run came out with the exact mock draft that is the most mocked draft out there.
The only difference I see is sometimes people think the Chargers will go WR or OL and sometimes we take Odunze over Nabers.
Exactly what the result should be. I have 2 more equations to apply. History of the pick number. and team need. So that probability isn't actually a probability it's simply what most mock drafts predicted?
Sorry, I mistook what you were trying to do there. I thought you had an algorithm you were using to predict the draft. Look forward to seeing what you produce with your additions.
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Post by McCherry on Mar 20, 2024 11:51:59 GMT -5
That's not what I'm saying. What is the reason why JJMcCarthy is the QB connected to the Giants by most pundits and scouts?It's either they love JJ which would be bad, or this is a smokescreen. Either way, it appears they are targeting JJ more than the other QBs. So much so they are now predicting other teams will jump the Giants for JJ. As I said, if they love JJ, they should be clamoring about how great it would be to add a target like Brock Bowers to Daniel Jones arsenal. I think it’s because most pundits/scouts have as much info as fans. They look at our roster, they look at the draft board, and they decide who we should draft. Literally no more analysis than that. So the Giants meet with JJ, which they should or they’re not doing their job, there really isn’t any opinion that can be gleaned from that. Other than scouts/pundits saying we need to upgrade QB and JJ is potentially available at #6, I’ve read nothing that rises above that unsupported speculation. Implying that meeting JJ is because we’re interested in drafting him is like saying going out on a date with someone is because we’re interested in marrying them. Of course that could be the outcome but it ridiculous to make that leap with basically no other info. I always respect your opinion, but I don't agree with that. Of course it depends on the pundit, but they absolutely have access to information that fans don't. Fan aren't at the combine, or talking to scouts, agents, players, team officials. The opinions here are based on what we read. Most times these draft predictions turn out to be right. Especially concerning team picking high and a QB prospect. We've seen it before with Jones and Eli. None of us were surprised when we took Neal/Thibs a couple years ago. The top 5-6 picks are usually scripted fairly accurately, give or take the order. I have zero doubts that McCarthy is high on the Giants list. Something would be very wrong if he weren't.
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Post by TEM on Mar 20, 2024 12:06:46 GMT -5
Exactly what the result should be. I have 2 more equations to apply. History of the pick number. and team need. So that probability isn't actually a probability it's simply what most mock drafts predicted?
Sorry, I mistook what you were trying to do there. I thought you had an algorithm you were using to predict the draft. Look forward to seeing what you produce with your additions.
Humans are predictable. Creatures of Habit. Are very repetitious in their behavior. Also, can be manipulated by influence of others. Why the averages of these mocks have to be factored in as equation in any predictability model. There are distinct patterns in the history of the draft in the cap era. (Repetitious behavior.) This is a theory I have on why I believe this predictable behavior exists in drafting. A team mentors FO staff, Personnel, Coaches.... Over time an individual rises through the organization. Other teams start noticing them. Get hired in a higher position within the organization or a different franchise. This process is taking place with all 32 teams. Keep moving up through the ranks. Get hired in a managerial position within the organization or a different franchise. The last step is an executive position GM... HC. Over decades of the intermixing of staff from all 32 franchises. The individuality of the way each team operates becomes convoluted. They are all basically with a similar mindset on the bases of how it is done. That is Predictable.
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Post by TEM on Mar 20, 2024 12:11:25 GMT -5
It's very consistent. Even after the season ended. The last 2 months are 75% of the mocks (525 of 700) It is a large enough sample size to get a qualitative result. I had one scenario that has Michael Penix Jr. go at pick 66 (IMO: my bias agrees with that draft slot.) If you say so. I would like to see any mock just for the 1st two rounds be 75% correct. There are so many surprises each year that I'm curious why fans give these mock drafts any credibility. The best mocks that are at best 19% I want to beat that. I am hoping for 30% players. 40% position. My first real attempt at this. I know it is going to be far from prefect. Got to start somewhere.
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Post by inthezone on Mar 20, 2024 12:16:44 GMT -5
If you say so. I would like to see any mock just for the 1st two rounds be 75% correct. There are so many surprises each year that I'm curious why fans give these mock drafts any credibility. The best mocks that are at best 19% I want to beat that. I am hoping for 30% players. 40% position. My first real attempt at this. I know it is going to be far from prefect. Got to start somewhere. All the best to you with your quest of this.
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Post by cdngfan on Mar 20, 2024 12:32:22 GMT -5
I think it’s because most pundits/scouts have as much info as fans. They look at our roster, they look at the draft board, and they decide who we should draft. Literally no more analysis than that. So the Giants meet with JJ, which they should or they’re not doing their job, there really isn’t any opinion that can be gleaned from that. Other than scouts/pundits saying we need to upgrade QB and JJ is potentially available at #6, I’ve read nothing that rises above that unsupported speculation. Implying that meeting JJ is because we’re interested in drafting him is like saying going out on a date with someone is because we’re interested in marrying them. Of course that could be the outcome but it ridiculous to make that leap with basically no other info. I always respect your opinion, but I don't agree with that. Of course it depends on the pundit, but they absolutely have access to information that fans don't. Fan aren't at the combine, or talking to scouts, agents, players, team officials. The opinions here are based on what we read. Most times these draft predictions turn out to be right. Especially concerning team picking high and a QB prospect. We've seen it before with Jones and Eli. None of us were surprised when we took Neal/Thibs a couple years ago. The top 5-6 picks are usually scripted fairly accurately, give or take the order. Whether we agree with the pundits or not, I have zero doubts in my mind that McCarthy is high on the Giants list. Something would be very wrong if he weren't. My point is more nuanced than that, so chalk it up to sloppy writing on my part. Mea culpa. Absolutely some pundits/commentators have access to info we don’t. I haven’t seen Adam Schefter break a story that wasnt correct. I’ve read lots of articles where legit sports journalists cite a source that’s giving them inside info. I’m not a Pat Leonard fan but he cites sources when he wants to share inside info. No qualms or quibble about that. But the JJ stuff specifically, I’ve seen none of that. And it’s becoming increasingly common that rumours are shared that have no journalistic basis tangibly beyond what we do on these boards. Specifically the only piece I’ve been able to read that tries to substantiate the “Giants interest” (does that mean interest at 6, or interest in the 2nd rd?) is from Connor Hughes at SNY. And while I respect his ability to craft an article that looks like he has inside info, he at least has the integrity to source nothing other than “the buzz” as evidence of the Giants generic interest. He then cited GMs and scouts that give a scouting report of JJ. Again, I don’t have those contacts, fully acknowledged. But nothing about those scouting reports are associated with the Giants. In fact they’re specifically un-franchised as a source. The other articles I’ve read simply report on the JJ meeting, and imply interest, again with no source citied. Just journalistic opinion. My point isn’t they have no interest in JJ. They do. But I’m open to any source of info that is cited as internally knowledgeable of the FO’s opinion which can help quantify that level of interest. Because the product of their meetings and their scouting could be they won’t draft him earlier than 15th relative to the other players available. Or they could be willing to trade their 1st next year to move to 4th to take him. Right now the information available is indiscernible between due diligence and taking a run at him at or before 6.
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Post by McCherry on Mar 20, 2024 13:22:51 GMT -5
I always respect your opinion, but I don't agree with that. Of course it depends on the pundit, but they absolutely have access to information that fans don't. Fan aren't at the combine, or talking to scouts, agents, players, team officials. The opinions here are based on what we read. Most times these draft predictions turn out to be right. Especially concerning team picking high and a QB prospect. We've seen it before with Jones and Eli. None of us were surprised when we took Neal/Thibs a couple years ago. The top 5-6 picks are usually scripted fairly accurately, give or take the order. Whether we agree with the pundits or not, I have zero doubts in my mind that McCarthy is high on the Giants list. Something would be very wrong if he weren't. My point is more nuanced than that, so chalk it up to sloppy writing on my part. Mea culpa. Absolutely some pundits/commentators have access to info we don’t. I haven’t seen Adam Schefter break a story that wasnt correct. I’ve read lots of articles where legit sports journalists cite a source that’s giving them inside info. I’m not a Pat Leonard fan but he cites sources when he wants to share inside info. No qualms or quibble about that. But the JJ stuff specifically, I’ve seen none of that. And it’s becoming increasingly common that rumours are shared that have no journalistic basis tangibly beyond what we do on these boards. Specifically the only piece I’ve been able to read that tries to substantiate the “Giants interest” (does that mean interest at 6, or interest in the 2nd rd?) is from Connor Hughes at SNY. And while I respect his ability to craft an article that looks like he has inside info, he at least has the integrity to source nothing other than “the buzz” as evidence of the Giants generic interest. He then cited GMs and scouts that give a scouting report of JJ. Again, I don’t have those contacts, fully acknowledged. But nothing about those scouting reports are associated with the Giants. In fact they’re specifically un-franchised as a source. The other articles I’ve read simply report on the JJ meeting, and imply interest, again with no source citied. Just journalistic opinion. My point isn’t they have no interest in JJ. They do. But I’m open to any source of info that is cited as internally knowledgeable of the FO’s opinion which can help quantify that level of interest. Because the product of their meetings and their scouting could be they won’t draft him earlier than 15th relative to the other players available. Or they could be willing to trade their 1st next year to move to 4th to take him. Right now the information available is indiscernible between due diligence and taking a run at him at or before 6. That's fair. And as I said, logic fits into it into terms of need. The gap between QB 4 and the rest seems to be very wide. Maye and McCarthy are the only QB's i've heard any Giants connection with. So if we want a QB which I believe is a must, I'm not sure how Penix or Nix fit in with our current draft picks.
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Post by Danke Schoen on Mar 20, 2024 14:21:55 GMT -5
That's not what I'm saying. What is the reason why JJMcCarthy is the QB connected to the Giants by most pundits and scouts? It's either they love JJ which would be bad, or this is a smokescreen. Either way, it appears they are targeting JJ more than the other QBs. So much so they are now predicting other teams will jump the Giants for JJ. As I said, if they love JJ, they should be clamoring about how great it would be to add a target like Brock Bowers to Daniel Jones arsenal. He’s most connected to them because (1) they likely have no chance at the top 3 QB’s (2) he’s the 4th QB and (3) we have a QB need. Just people connecting the dots. Not sure how this could be avoided People connecting the dots is perfectly stated. Some of these people have us trading up for Maye. Other people say we’re in love with McCarthy. Other people say we’ll take Daniel’s at 6. Other people have us trading back. Point is: it’s all noise.
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Post by Danke Schoen on Mar 20, 2024 14:24:41 GMT -5
It's due to the other 3 QBs expecting to be drafted 1,2,3 leaving the Giants with the 4th best of the group. My first calculation within my algorithm ran over 700 Mock drafts that were conducted for the beginning of October through Last Saturday. The consensus has the highest probability for the pick compared out of the top 20 players. Caleb Williams has a 83.2% chance of being taken with the #1 pick. Drake Maye has a 53% chance of being taken with the #2 pick. (30.6% with pick 3) Jayden Daniels has a 36.7% chance of being taken with the # 3 pick. (22.9% with pick 2) Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 54.9% chance of being taken with the #4 pick. (21% with pick 3) Brock Bowers has a 23% chance of being taken with the # 5 pick (12.4% with pick 10) Malik Nabers has a 31.1% chance of being taken with the # 6 pick (18% with pick 5) Joe Alt has a 39.9% chance of being taken with the # 7 pick (19.2% with pick 5) Dallas Turner has a 28.6% chance of being taken with pick # 8 pick. Rome Odunze has a 22.5% chance of being taken with the # 9 pick. Olumuyiwa Fashanu has a 20.8% chance of being taken with the # 10 Pick (24.6 with pick 7) J.J. McCarthy has a 28.9% chance of being taken with the # 11 pick. Bo Nix has a 25.8% chance of being taken with the # 12 pick. Michael Penix Jr. has a 20.8% chance of being taken with the # 13 pick With an average of 95.6% probability of the top 10 in this order. These scenarios account for any team that holds the pick. (trades) All other probabilities are in the less than 10%. Mostly in the under 5% to 0% range. For Entertainment only. Use my data at your own risk. I do not want to be responsible for any losses that you may incur.
Let me get this straight. You scoured the internet for over 700 mock drafts and manually entered them into an algorithm you created?
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Post by TEM on Mar 20, 2024 14:29:39 GMT -5
My first calculation within my algorithm ran over 700 Mock drafts that were conducted for the beginning of October through Last Saturday. The consensus has the highest probability for the pick compared out of the top 20 players. Caleb Williams has a 83.2% chance of being taken with the #1 pick. Drake Maye has a 53% chance of being taken with the #2 pick. (30.6% with pick 3) Jayden Daniels has a 36.7% chance of being taken with the # 3 pick. (22.9% with pick 2) Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 54.9% chance of being taken with the #4 pick. (21% with pick 3) Brock Bowers has a 23% chance of being taken with the # 5 pick (12.4% with pick 10) Malik Nabers has a 31.1% chance of being taken with the # 6 pick (18% with pick 5) Joe Alt has a 39.9% chance of being taken with the # 7 pick (19.2% with pick 5) Dallas Turner has a 28.6% chance of being taken with pick # 8 pick. Rome Odunze has a 22.5% chance of being taken with the # 9 pick. Olumuyiwa Fashanu has a 20.8% chance of being taken with the # 10 Pick (24.6 with pick 7) J.J. McCarthy has a 28.9% chance of being taken with the # 11 pick. Bo Nix has a 25.8% chance of being taken with the # 12 pick. Michael Penix Jr. has a 20.8% chance of being taken with the # 13 pick With an average of 95.6% probability of the top 10 in this order. These scenarios account for any team that holds the pick. (trades) All other probabilities are in the less than 10%. Mostly in the under 5% to 0% range. For Entertainment only. Use my data at your own risk. I do not want to be responsible for any losses that you may incur.
Let me get this straight. You scoured the internet for over 700 mock drafts and manually entered them into an algorithm you created? Used a Mock draft portal. linkI have importing software.
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Post by Danke Schoen on Mar 20, 2024 14:40:18 GMT -5
Let me get this straight. You scoured the internet for over 700 mock drafts and manually entered them into an algorithm you created? Used a Mock draft portal. linkI have importing software. I understand all you’re doing is providing an aggregate but if the source data comes from Will Brinson (who?), Tankathon, and the likes… it gets filed under “”okay… so what?” for me.
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Post by Fletch842 on Mar 20, 2024 14:49:03 GMT -5
for the record, Maye is at the facility today, so maybe we'll be picking both...
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Post by imgrate on Mar 20, 2024 15:03:31 GMT -5
1. You have to do your due diligence on if the guy is someone you find worthy of investing the #6 overall pick (or trading up for).
2. One of these qbs is going to be playing for our division rival. Knowing them will provide benefit there
3. Some of these guys will get cut or become free agents at some point. This is a data point on if you want to bring them in if they come available in future years
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Post by inconvenientruth on Mar 20, 2024 15:10:29 GMT -5
for the record, Maye is at the facility today, so maybe we'll be picking both... Both are middle of the field throwers. They will both be ranked highly for Vikings + Giants. In my opinion. But whos got the balls for the trade up? I believe one of these teams miss out on their QB. I don't believe Giants are in on any QBs after McCarthy. Rightly so, based on their scheme. Penix doesn't fit at all. Not sure how he does in the NFL. His game doesn't exactly translate, I'm surprised I don't read more of it
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Post by TEM on Mar 20, 2024 17:08:07 GMT -5
Used a Mock draft portal. linkI have importing software. I understand all you’re doing is providing an aggregate but if the source data comes from Will Brinson (who?), Tankathon, and the likes… it gets filed under “”okay… so what?” for me. I agree but consensus should be a factor.
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Post by myronguyton29 on Mar 21, 2024 6:16:20 GMT -5
they were talking last night about Maye and if he goes to a situation where he doesn't have to play right away because he really hasn't played a lot of football outside of the past 2 years, him sitting and learning for a year or 2 then when he gets his time they he should really really be good to go. Everyone won't be a CJ Stroud and I believe some of them sitting it would be night and day how they turn out vs thrust into action right away.....
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