Aris
Special Teams
Posts: 498
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Post by Aris on Mar 27, 2024 15:32:14 GMT -5
.45 in - 1st pick This was an easy 20 year old miss, and the easiest to excuse. From his vantage the defender was lost in the sun. He will learn from it, and read the defense pre snap as he garners more reps. 2.00 in - 2nd pick Bad throw off an easy read. Underthrown. Mechanics fine. 3.15 in - TD throw off a great route …defender bit and hips went one way as per route design, receiver the other direction. Separation gained by route running. Rope by JJ 4.20 in - Overthrown a sure TD 5.00 in - Failure to read an obvious blitz….sack 6.40 in - NFL throw and a NFL receiver doing X will catch that 7.45 in - Underthrown TD. Makes up for the overthrown missed TD. 8.50 in - 3rd pick. This one is of concern for scouts. Everything aside from his keeping his eyes down field was wrong. Will a 20 year old learn to throw it away in a game you are leading 30- 6? I believe so. We like highlights …well this was his worse game. I like lowlights, and all of this can be corrected with reps and coaching. Will he be a top NFL franchise QB? Don’t know. Do know I would for sure roll the dice on him ( apologies to all dice players offended ) …no question
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Post by Nick6475 on Mar 27, 2024 16:10:22 GMT -5
EDIT: The guy who posted this admitted he made a mistake and McCarthy's actual conversion rate was closer to 48% than 68%. Blamed it on the source. Still really good, but not near the volume of these other QBs.
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Post by keyofgmen on Mar 27, 2024 16:21:48 GMT -5
Was that attributable to the QB or the system? He was. He fit that system. The history of the NFL shows game mangers can win. But not SBs. The QB need that gunslinger attitude to win that game. Well.... except one bleak SB won by Mr Dilfer....haha.
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Post by TEM on Mar 27, 2024 16:32:06 GMT -5
He was. He fit that system. The history of the NFL shows game mangers can win. But not SBs. The QB need that gunslinger attitude to win that game. Well.... except one bleak SB won by Mr Dilfer....haha. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. With that said gunslingers win Super bowls at a way higher percentage.
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Post by cdngfan on Mar 27, 2024 17:11:59 GMT -5
That article told exactly what the problem is. There is no definitive process. It is more PFF-ing it than science. It there is no set parameters that each scout adheres to in the eval process. Then there is no continuity in the conclusion. If there is no continuity. That leaves a gaping hole for F-ups. And explains why the Bears only won 3 playoff games in the past 23 years. This is most teams. I’ve read a couple others that are utilizing analytics a lot more, trying to be more definitive and disciplined in the systems employed. But all of those systems are still probability based. It would be interesting to see if there’s a franchise doing much better than the others. As it stands now just defining “better” is a highly variable exercise in and of itself.
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Post by TEM on Mar 27, 2024 17:33:31 GMT -5
That article told exactly what the problem is. There is no definitive process. It is more PFF-ing it than science. It there is no set parameters that each scout adheres to in the eval process. Then there is no continuity in the conclusion. If there is no continuity. That leaves a gaping hole for F-ups. And explains why the Bears only won 3 playoff games in the past 23 years. This is most teams. I’ve read a couple others that are utilizing analytics a lot more, trying to be more definitive and disciplined in the systems employed. But all of those systems are still probability based. It would be interesting to see if there’s a franchise doing much better than the others. As it stands now just defining “better” is a highly variable exercise in and of itself. Sooner or later a FO is going to get it. When it happens. They will have knockout blows with their 1st 3 picks consistently. There is enough draft data to extrapolate what is desirable and what isn't. The picks they make will most likely go against the grain.
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Post by Nick6475 on Mar 27, 2024 17:50:34 GMT -5
I’ve read a couple others that are utilizing analytics a lot more, trying to be more definitive and disciplined in the systems employed. But all of those systems are still probability based. It would be interesting to see if there’s a franchise doing much better than the others. As it stands now just defining “better” is a highly variable exercise in and of itself. Sooner or later a FO is going to get it. When it happens. They will have knockout blows with their 1st 3 picks consistently. There is enough draft data to extrapolate what is desirable and what isn't. The picks they make will most likely go against the grain. I disagree for the same reasons I brought up with you before. The draft data may give an edge to a team that isn't using it or isn't using it right, but there are too many variables in the future that will cause a "perfect pick" to go wrong for a team to hit on picks consistently year after year. However, if you figure out how to account for that and come up with an algorithm that works, please go work for the Giants.
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Post by Bigjeep on Mar 27, 2024 17:57:35 GMT -5
Its a crap shoot! Just ask the Jets!
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Post by Rangers13 on Mar 27, 2024 18:23:56 GMT -5
Its a crap shoot! Just ask the Jets! Yeah, that HUGE win vs the Raiders cost them Trevor Lawrence. Now they have Zach Wilson and a time bomb with Rodgers
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Post by DonnieYen on Mar 27, 2024 21:58:04 GMT -5
There is a lot of tunnel vision and close mindedness on this board regarding JJ.The sample size excuse is lame but exists. Here is what I focus on that others have a hard time digesting. He lead his high school team outside Chicago to a state championship. He led IMG to a national high school championship. He led Michigan to two Big Ten championships He led Michigan to the college football championship. His record at Michigan and IMG is 35 - 1 He has a strong arm, ( 61 mph second only to Joe Milton 62mph ) Accuracy ( 72% completion rate last season ) Escapability and is a very good runner as well as throws well on the run. Good Decision Maker 22 TD’s only 4 interceptions ( 3 in one game early in the season and 2 of those were blamed on his WR’s not making the right read) Tough - former hockey player Great Character - Role Model - Face of a franchise dude. Some people want to erase that because of what they perceive as a small sample = DUMB He’s gone from a second round prediction in January to a possible 2nd or 3rd choice in the first round. Why? Because teams have figured it out. They watched his tape - his combine - his Pro Day - his interview. Haters are gonna hate doubters are gonna doubt. The thing I like most is a lot of those folks have seen the light and they have opened their eyes to what the guy brings to the table. The others are who they are. For one reason or another they just don’t get it. He's a potential spot starter but probably very solid back up. That is what he is. yeah that's why every GM and scout likes him 🙄 Giants are having a private meeting with JJ McCarthy on Easter Sunday Pat Leonard is reporting it on his Twitter page Also Bill Bellichick likes him reminds him of Brady,
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Post by cdngfan on Mar 28, 2024 6:37:43 GMT -5
Sooner or later a FO is going to get it. When it happens. They will have knockout blows with their 1st 3 picks consistently. There is enough draft data to extrapolate what is desirable and what isn't. The picks they make will most likely go against the grain. I disagree for the same reasons I brought up with you before. The draft data may give an edge to a team that isn't using it or isn't using it right, but there are too many variables in the future that will cause a "perfect pick" to go wrong for a team to hit on picks consistently year after year. However, if you figure out how to account for that and come up with an algorithm that works, please go work for the Giants. TEM being a numbers guy will probably see it the same way. You’re right, the number of variables is staggering. But that’s exactly the solution AI is providing. It still deals with probability but it incorporates an inconceivable number of variables and calculations. The calculations behind AI are actually pretty simple, the magic comes in data gathering and the sheer number of calculations. So 3 years ago I would have absolutely agree with you. But I think we’re approaching a day where a team is going to sail past the average success rate for prospects by incorporating a system that gathers much more data than they’re using today. They’re just starting to use video capture to calculate angles of jump cuts, jukes, pursuit angles and in game top speeds and probably 50 other measures I'm unaware of. The battle won’t actually be the design of the system of evaluation. The battle will be how to find and accumulate more data than other teams that’s repeatable from one player to the next.
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Post by TEM on Mar 28, 2024 7:18:38 GMT -5
Sooner or later a FO is going to get it. When it happens. They will have knockout blows with their 1st 3 picks consistently. There is enough draft data to extrapolate what is desirable and what isn't. The picks they make will most likely go against the grain. I disagree for the same reasons I brought up with you before. The draft data may give an edge to a team that isn't using it or isn't using it right, but there are too many variables in the future that will cause a "perfect pick" to go wrong for a team to hit on picks consistently year after year. However, if you figure out how to account for that and come up with an algorithm that works, please go work for the Giants. That is the old mentality. It is a system that produces more failure than success. AI will either show the entire player vetting system is inaccurate. OR. The NFL in its structure is flawed. The quality of individuals that the league requires does not exist. Too many teams for the talent pool.
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Post by bluebuddha on Mar 28, 2024 7:54:22 GMT -5
I disagree for the same reasons I brought up with you before. The draft data may give an edge to a team that isn't using it or isn't using it right, but there are too many variables in the future that will cause a "perfect pick" to go wrong for a team to hit on picks consistently year after year. However, if you figure out how to account for that and come up with an algorithm that works, please go work for the Giants. TEM being a numbers guy will probably see it the same way. You’re right, the number of variables is staggering. But that’s exactly the solution AI is providing. It still deals with probability but it incorporates an inconceivable number of variables and calculations. The calculations behind AI are actually pretty simple, the magic comes in data gathering and the sheer number of calculations. So 3 years ago I would have absolutely agree with you. But I think we’re approaching a day where a team is going to sail past the average success rate for prospects by incorporating a system that gathers much more data than they’re using today. They’re just starting to use video capture to calculate angles of jump cuts, jukes, pursuit angles and in game top speeds and probably 50 other measures I'm unaware of. The battle won’t actually be the design of the system of evaluation. The battle will be how to find and accumulate more data than other teams that’s repeatable from one player to the next. True if I was a coach I would draft players for the practice squad or end of the roster that come up to the top of the AI list based on certain weather conditions or turf surface to have them ready for cold rainy conditions or when playing on a certain surface for an edge. Miami sure could have used some cold wether players for the playoffs. The small fast rbs are useless when the ground is frozen solid.
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Post by bavarobeast on Mar 28, 2024 8:01:59 GMT -5
He's a potential spot starter but probably very solid back up. That is what he is. yeah that's why every GM and scout likes him 🙄 Giants are having a private meeting with JJ McCarthy on Easter Sunday Pat Leonard is reporting it on his Twitter page Also Bill Bellichick likes him reminds him of Brady, Don’t post positive info about JJ - it’s sets the asses on fire of those who believe he’ll be a backup or a failure. 😂 Moorehead and others will have some head in the sand response why the Giants brass will be in A2 this weekend for a private workout. It’s a smokescreen. JJ is nothing more than a backup - small body of work - he only hands the ball off. This has become one of the most entertaining topics on this board since I joined. The total cluelessness of guys that judge college football players on this board yet they don’t watch college football. It sure shows. To those of you that have finally seen the light that this kid brings 👍👍. I understand why it took some time to come around to how talented the guy is. He was mostly just asked to be a game manager on a run dominant team. The GM’s get it - the NFL coaches get it - the analysts get it. But they are all wrong because Giants fans know better. To those who still don’t get it…..I don’t know….at this point you have proven to be out of touch to put it kindly. There is no more discussing it with them - I’m just gonna sit back and watch. Cue…..this is where the haters respond with darts and arrows. Unfortunately for them those darts and arrows have no points on them and if it were bullets they’d be blanks. I won’t be responding to them it’s become a wasted effort. I don’t “think” McCarthy will end up a Giant because he’ll probably be off the board. To many teams are enamored with him and everything he has done in football has proven he’s extremely talented and a winner.
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Post by cruzsoldier on Mar 28, 2024 8:21:39 GMT -5
People that are saying JJ McCarthy is a Reach early in the First Round and isn't good these people saying this don't know anything about Football. He is one of the top QBS in the draft and has a strong accurate arm and can run. This narrative that he is no good or on a not so good level with Mitch Truibisky is false. We don’t need hoping that a QB is good that’s what got Saquon Barkley drafted #2 overall hoping that he would make Eli “good” again 🤦♂️. There is too much risk with McCarthy if I’m the Organization if 1 of the big 3 QB’s isn’t there and no it’s not McCarthy in the big 3 I am not taking a QB. If they are all gone I’m taking 1 of the top 3 WR’s you guys know the names. Don’t draft an OL # 6 if you’re going to do that trade down with Minnesota and get a 2 for 1. Draft the top CB with the #11 overall (Quinyon Mitchell) and #23 WR (Bryan Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell). You get an elite CB and a potential #1 WR. We need players that are going to pan out we can’t have anymore Evan Neal’s and Ereck Flowers type results.
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Post by christian on Mar 28, 2024 10:40:50 GMT -5
People that are saying JJ McCarthy is a Reach early in the First Round and isn't good these people saying this don't know anything about Football. He is one of the top QBS in the draft and has a strong accurate arm and can run. This narrative that he is no good or on a not so good level with Mitch Truibisky is false. We don’t need hoping that a QB is good that’s what got Saquon Barkley drafted #2 overall hoping that he would make Eli “good” again 🤦♂️. There is too much risk with McCarthy if I’m the Organization if 1 of the big 3 QB’s isn’t there and no it’s not McCarthy in the big 3 I am not taking a QB. If they are all gone I’m taking 1 of the top 3 WR’s you guys know the names. Don’t draft an OL # 6 if you’re going to do that trade down with Minnesota and get a 2 for 1. Draft the top CB with the #11 overall (Quinyon Mitchell) and #23 WR (Bryan Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell). You get an elite CB and a potential #1 WR. We need players that are going to pan out we can’t have anymore Evan Neal’s and Ereck Flowers type results. I hope the Giants get him
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Post by Nick6475 on Mar 28, 2024 10:50:45 GMT -5
People that are saying JJ McCarthy is a Reach early in the First Round and isn't good these people saying this don't know anything about Football. He is one of the top QBS in the draft and has a strong accurate arm and can run. This narrative that he is no good or on a not so good level with Mitch Truibisky is false. We don’t need hoping that a QB is good that’s what got Saquon Barkley drafted #2 overall hoping that he would make Eli “good” again 🤦♂️. There is too much risk with McCarthy if I’m the Organization if 1 of the big 3 QB’s isn’t there and no it’s not McCarthy in the big 3 I am not taking a QB. If they are all gone I’m taking 1 of the top 3 WR’s you guys know the names. Don’t draft an OL # 6 if you’re going to do that trade down with Minnesota and get a 2 for 1. Draft the top CB with the #11 overall (Quinyon Mitchell) and #23 WR (Bryan Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell). You get an elite CB and a potential #1 WR. We need players that are going to pan out we can’t have anymore Evan Neal’s and Ereck Flowers type results. Evan Neal was not a bad pick. He was one of the highest rated OTs in the draft and was a big need for the Giants. The fact that he has not panned out yet is because the Giants don't coach/develop players well or just bad luck or maybe both.
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Post by bluebuddha on Mar 28, 2024 11:27:08 GMT -5
We don’t need hoping that a QB is good that’s what got Saquon Barkley drafted #2 overall hoping that he would make Eli “good” again 🤦♂️. There is too much risk with McCarthy if I’m the Organization if 1 of the big 3 QB’s isn’t there and no it’s not McCarthy in the big 3 I am not taking a QB. If they are all gone I’m taking 1 of the top 3 WR’s you guys know the names. Don’t draft an OL # 6 if you’re going to do that trade down with Minnesota and get a 2 for 1. Draft the top CB with the #11 overall (Quinyon Mitchell) and #23 WR (Bryan Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell). You get an elite CB and a potential #1 WR. We need players that are going to pan out we can’t have anymore Evan Neal’s and Ereck Flowers type results. Evan Neal was not a bad pick. He was one of the highest rated OTs in the draft and was a big need for the Giants. The fact that he has not panned out yet is because the Giants don't coach/develop players well or just bad luck or maybe both. coaching has been abysmal since Coughlin left. The position coaches need to step up thier game.
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Post by bluebuddha on Mar 28, 2024 11:29:12 GMT -5
With that running game and oline how many 3rd downs has he been in compared to the rest? Especially given the fact most of the other QBs have more completions than JJ has attempts.
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Post by Nick6475 on Mar 28, 2024 11:56:49 GMT -5
With that running game and oline how many 3rd downs has he been in compared to the rest? Especially given the fact most of the other QBs have more completions than JJ has attempts. And the guy that posted the chart admitted there was a mistake, he is closer to 48%, not 68%.
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