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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 9:52:27 GMT -5
Ok. I'll play along....IF you can show me proof of a QB that lost his best WR (and he didn't have another #1 target) and put up similar stats, I'll retract my statement Seeing as you will probably reply with a snark response about how "it's common sense" I'll just take the win now Patrick Mahomes had a better year in 2022 after he lost Tyreek Hill, who is probably the best receiver in the NFL. Knew that one was coming...he still had Kelce who is clearly a #1 target .... Anybody other than the QB with best start to a career in the history of the NFL? Unless you think that's who we'd be drafting if we take a QB? Also, look at what happened this year when Kelce was injured / didn't play...Mahomes had his "worst" year
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Post by jaymas on Feb 8, 2024 9:54:03 GMT -5
Patrick Mahomes had a better year in 2022 after he lost Tyreek Hill, who is probably the best receiver in the NFL. Knew that one was coming...he still had Kelce who is clearly a #1 target .... Anybody other than the QB with best start to a career in the history of the NFL? Unless you think that's who we'd be drafting if we take a QB? No one is better at scrambling than you I answered your question exactly as you posed it. Now it's "well Kelce." You asked about a WR specifically.
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Post by imgrate on Feb 8, 2024 9:58:57 GMT -5
Bravo! You anticipated the obvious hole in your argument and instead of addressing it, you just brushed it aside and still posted the terrible analysis. Why pay those guys?Because those guys provide more impact than the spreading out of 1000yds and 7tds… You’re literally subtracting out 171 plays from the dolphins and not backfilling at all, its completely stupid. Ok. I'll play along....IF you can show me proof of a QB that lost his best WR (and he didn't have another #1 target) and put up similar stats, I'll retract my statement Seeing as you will probably reply with a snark response about how "it's common sense" I'll just take the win now If he lost his best wr, then the next highest targeted guy on the team would inherently be the #1 target, so not sure what to do with that caveat… I’ll go with a quick and easy example.. Cooper Kupp missed first 4 games of this season. Matt stafford averaged 307 yds/gm. The reason your point is dumb, is because you are deleting plays and not filling in any estimated amount. And yes, it is common sense… Tyreek hill had 171 targets. Those targets/plays would go to someone else, albeit there would be more or less plays, but definitely less yards per play on those 171. If you delete 171 plays from the dolphins then they would have only had ~880 plays on the season. The lowest amount of plays by ANY team this year was 995. Shit dont make sense, should be pretty damn obvious
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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 9:59:51 GMT -5
Knew that one was coming...he still had Kelce who is clearly a #1 target .... Anybody other than the QB with best start to a career in the history of the NFL? Unless you think that's who we'd be drafting if we take a QB? No one is better at scrambling than you I answered your question exactly as you posed it. Now it's "well Kelce." You asked about a WR specifically. but did you read? "IF you can show me proof of a QB that lost his best WR ( and he didn't have another #1 target)" pretty straight-forward, you went outside the parameters anyway
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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 10:07:09 GMT -5
Ok. I'll play along....IF you can show me proof of a QB that lost his best WR (and he didn't have another #1 target) and put up similar stats, I'll retract my statement Seeing as you will probably reply with a snark response about how "it's common sense" I'll just take the win now If he lost his best wr, then the next highest targeted guy on the team would inherently be the #1 target, so not sure what to do with that caveat… I’ll go with a quick and easy example.. Cooper Kupp missed first 4 games of this season. Matt stafford averaged 307 yds/gm. The reason your point is dumb, is because you are deleting plays and not filling in any estimated amount. And yes, it is common sense… Tyreek hill had 171 targets. Those targets/plays would go to someone else, albeit there would be more or less plays, but definitely less yards per play on those 171. If you delete 171 plays from the dolphins then they would have only had ~880 plays on the season. The lowest amount of plays by ANY team this year was 995. Shit dont make sense, should be pretty damn obvious Clearly there are missing plays but my point is about similar production not fill-in production. You can say 5-700 yards 5-7 TDs would be spread to others guys but you ignore the fact that INT numbers are likely going up as well ( and games lost for that matter) How did the 2008 Giants fare without Plax? How did 2011 Pats offense look after Gronk was injured? Did the passes go to other guys? They sure did...but the impact wasn't there. Without Plax we suddenly had no open receivers and the Pats without Gronk had to throw to Welker on an important down...who dropped the pass. We lose the 2011 superbowl if Gronk was even 50% healthy...he could barely walk without a noticeable limp. Top dogs matter. How did the Eagles look without AJ Brown??? I guess these are all irrelevant cuz they prove my point
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Post by jaymas on Feb 8, 2024 10:09:20 GMT -5
No one is better at scrambling than you I answered your question exactly as you posed it. Now it's "well Kelce." You asked about a WR specifically. but did you read? "IF you can show me proof of a QB that lost his best WR ( and he didn't have another #1 target)" pretty straight-forward, you went outside the parameters anyway I did read...and assumed #1 target was still referring to the WR position as in the loss was not replaced. My apologies to you. Still don't agree with you. Of course you couldn't gut an offense and hope for the same output. But the QB has far more impact on the success of an offense. And our film shows guys open, but a QB1 that doesn't give them the ball. That will happen in every game occasionally, but our guy consistently does not take the shots, even when the play is designed for some of them. Makes defending us real easy when he's under center, especially when you combine it with pretty below average offensive line play.
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Post by imgrate on Feb 8, 2024 10:12:54 GMT -5
If he lost his best wr, then the next highest targeted guy on the team would inherently be the #1 target, so not sure what to do with that caveat… I’ll go with a quick and easy example.. Cooper Kupp missed first 4 games of this season. Matt stafford averaged 307 yds/gm. The reason your point is dumb, is because you are deleting plays and not filling in any estimated amount. And yes, it is common sense… Tyreek hill had 171 targets. Those targets/plays would go to someone else, albeit there would be more or less plays, but definitely less yards per play on those 171. If you delete 171 plays from the dolphins then they would have only had ~880 plays on the season. The lowest amount of plays by ANY team this year was 995. Shit dont make sense, should be pretty damn obvious Clearly there are missing plays but my point is about similar production not fill-in production. You can say 5-700 yards 5-7 TDs would be spread to others guys but you ignore the fact that INT numbers are likely going up as well ( and games lost for that matter) How did the 2008 Giants fare without Plax? How did 2011 Pats offense look after Gronk was injured? Did the passes go to other guys? They sure did...but the impact wasn't there. Without Plax we suddenly had no open receivers and the Pats without Gronk had to throw to Welker on an important down...who dropped the pass. We lose the 2011 superbowl if Gronk was even 50% healthy...he could barely walk without a noticeable limp. Top dogs matter. How did the Eagles look without AJ Brown??? I guess these are all irrelevant cuz they prove my point You’re making a completely different point now. Your original point was subtracting all the stats accrued by a team’s #1 WR and using it as if it were somehow representative of how those qb’s stats would be without those guys. And to also compare it to DJ Now, your point is that top playmakers make a difference… well, yea no shit
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Post by jaymas on Feb 8, 2024 10:14:31 GMT -5
If he lost his best wr, then the next highest targeted guy on the team would inherently be the #1 target, so not sure what to do with that caveat… I’ll go with a quick and easy example.. Cooper Kupp missed first 4 games of this season. Matt stafford averaged 307 yds/gm. The reason your point is dumb, is because you are deleting plays and not filling in any estimated amount. And yes, it is common sense… Tyreek hill had 171 targets. Those targets/plays would go to someone else, albeit there would be more or less plays, but definitely less yards per play on those 171. If you delete 171 plays from the dolphins then they would have only had ~880 plays on the season. The lowest amount of plays by ANY team this year was 995. Shit dont make sense, should be pretty damn obvious Clearly there are missing plays but my point is about similar production not fill-in production. You can say 5-700 yards 5-7 TDs would be spread to others guys but you ignore the fact that INT numbers are likely going up as well ( and games lost for that matter) How did the 2008 Giants fare without Plax? How did 2011 Pats offense look after Gronk was injured? Did the passes go to other guys? They sure did...but the impact wasn't there. Without Plax we suddenly had no open receivers and the Pats without Gronk had to throw to Welker on an important down...who dropped the pass. We lose the 2011 superbowl if Gronk was even 50% healthy...he could barely walk without a noticeable limp. Top dogs matter. How did the Eagles look without AJ Brown??? I guess these are all irrelevant cuz they prove my point Had to throw to Welker on an important down!?!?!?! He was the 1b slot to Victor Cruz in all of football and had 1,569 yards and 9 TDs that season. And he was doing that before Gronk's arrival in NE. Quite literally a guy you'd throw to in that situation all the time.
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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 10:22:03 GMT -5
but did you read? "IF you can show me proof of a QB that lost his best WR ( and he didn't have another #1 target)" pretty straight-forward, you went outside the parameters anyway I did read...and assumed #1 target was still referring to the WR position as in the loss was not replaced. My apologies to you. Still don't agree with you. Of course you couldn't gut an offense and hope for the same output. But the QB has far more impact on the success of an offense. And our film shows guys open, but a QB1 that doesn't give them the ball. That will happen in every game occasionally, but our guy consistently does not take the shots, even when the play is designed for some of them. Makes defending us real easy when he's under center, especially when you combine it with pretty below average offensive line play. Really? You saw ALL of this in the 5 games Jones played? How about a comparison against a team Jones and Devito played? Jones vs Cowboys 15/28 104 passing yards Devito vs Cowboys 14/27 86 passing yards ( 50 yards coming on the last drive as time expires) He had THIRTY SIX passing yards until the 2 minute warning Yeah the production was off the charts without Jones... Maybe the offenses looked a little different because Barkley was back in the lineup ? Eh, you're right our best player on offense had nothing to do with it
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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 10:23:09 GMT -5
Clearly there are missing plays but my point is about similar production not fill-in production. You can say 5-700 yards 5-7 TDs would be spread to others guys but you ignore the fact that INT numbers are likely going up as well ( and games lost for that matter) How did the 2008 Giants fare without Plax? How did 2011 Pats offense look after Gronk was injured? Did the passes go to other guys? They sure did...but the impact wasn't there. Without Plax we suddenly had no open receivers and the Pats without Gronk had to throw to Welker on an important down...who dropped the pass. We lose the 2011 superbowl if Gronk was even 50% healthy...he could barely walk without a noticeable limp. Top dogs matter. How did the Eagles look without AJ Brown??? I guess these are all irrelevant cuz they prove my point You’re making a completely different point now. Your original point was subtracting all the stats accrued by a team’s #1 WR and using it as if it were somehow representative of how those qb’s stats would be without those guys. And to also compare it to DJ Now, your point is that top playmakers make a difference… well, yea no shit so you agree? ok then
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Post by jaymas on Feb 8, 2024 10:26:40 GMT -5
I did read...and assumed #1 target was still referring to the WR position as in the loss was not replaced. My apologies to you. Still don't agree with you. Of course you couldn't gut an offense and hope for the same output. But the QB has far more impact on the success of an offense. And our film shows guys open, but a QB1 that doesn't give them the ball. That will happen in every game occasionally, but our guy consistently does not take the shots, even when the play is designed for some of them. Makes defending us real easy when he's under center, especially when you combine it with pretty below average offensive line play. Really? You saw ALL of this in the 5 games Jones played? How about a comparison against a team Jones and Devito played? Jones vs Cowboys 15/28 104 passing yards Devito vs Cowboys 14/27 86 passing yards ( 50 yards coming on the last drive as time expires) He had THIRTY SIX passing yards until the 2 minute warning Yeah the production was off the charts without Jones... Maybe the offenses looked a little different because Barkley was back in the lineup ? Eh, you're right our best player on offense had nothing to do with it Dude...it was an undrafted rookie FA's first NFL start against one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the league. You're not more concerned the 5th year starter who just got a huge contract could barely outplay Tommy DeVito in his first NFL start? Jones had one more completion and 19 more passing yards. Terrible point you're trying to make. Also, no, I've seen this for most of Daniel Jones' career. I thought he was beginning to turn a corner last year, but alas was not the case. And the lack of intermediate throws and chunk plays to open guys that demonstrate processing ability or throwing with anticipation was still on film in 2022. Just. Stop.
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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 10:27:43 GMT -5
but did you read? "IF you can show me proof of a QB that lost his best WR ( and he didn't have another #1 target)" pretty straight-forward, you went outside the parameters anyway I did read...and assumed #1 target was still referring to the WR position as in the loss was not replaced. My apologies to you. Still don't agree with you. Of course you couldn't gut an offense and hope for the same output. But the QB has far more impact on the success of an offense. And our film shows guys open, but a QB1 that doesn't give them the ball. That will happen in every game occasionally, but our guy consistently does not take the shots, even when the play is designed for some of them. Makes defending us real easy when he's under center, especially when you combine it with pretty below average offensive line play. link to the film? I've seen film too and it shows guy dropping passes and running bad/wrong routes. I'll provide the links if needed
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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 10:28:51 GMT -5
Really? You saw ALL of this in the 5 games Jones played? How about a comparison against a team Jones and Devito played? Jones vs Cowboys 15/28 104 passing yards Devito vs Cowboys 14/27 86 passing yards ( 50 yards coming on the last drive as time expires) He had THIRTY SIX passing yards until the 2 minute warning Yeah the production was off the charts without Jones... Maybe the offenses looked a little different because Barkley was back in the lineup ? Eh, you're right our best player on offense had nothing to do with it Dude...it was an undrafted rookie FA's first NFL start against one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the league. You're not more concerned the 5th year starter who just got a huge contract could barely outplay Tommy DeVito in his first NFL start? Jones had one more completion and 19 more passing yards. Terrible point you're trying to make. Also, no, I've seen this for most of Daniel Jones' career. I thought he was beginning to turn a corner last year, but alas was not the case. And the lack of intermediate throws and chunk plays to open guys that demonstrate processing ability or throwing with anticipation was still on film in 2022. Just. Stop. So now he needs to be labeled an undrafted rookie FA? You said he was outplaying Jones, I'm just trying to see when
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Post by imgrate on Feb 8, 2024 10:30:29 GMT -5
You’re making a completely different point now. Your original point was subtracting all the stats accrued by a team’s #1 WR and using it as if it were somehow representative of how those qb’s stats would be without those guys. And to also compare it to DJ Now, your point is that top playmakers make a difference… well, yea no shit so you agree? ok then I stand by my initial production replacement numbers. For example, Baker Mayfield, you said he’d have 2780yds and 15tds without Mike Evans. Baker Mayfield had 3725yds and 27tds in 13 starts in 2018 3827 and 22 in 16 games in ‘19 3563 and 26 in 16 games in ‘20 3010 and 17 in 14 games in ‘21 2163 and 10 in 10starts on two different teams in ‘22 So, yea its looking like my numbers were on the low side.
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Post by jaymas on Feb 8, 2024 10:31:53 GMT -5
Dude...it was an undrafted rookie FA's first NFL start against one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the league. You're not more concerned the 5th year starter who just got a huge contract could barely outplay Tommy DeVito in his first NFL start? Jones had one more completion and 19 more passing yards. Terrible point you're trying to make. Also, no, I've seen this for most of Daniel Jones' career. I thought he was beginning to turn a corner last year, but alas was not the case. And the lack of intermediate throws and chunk plays to open guys that demonstrate processing ability or throwing with anticipation was still on film in 2022. Just. Stop. So now he needs to be labeled an undrafted rookie FA? You said he was outplaying Jones, I'm just trying to see when He did outplay Jones in several of his starts this year. I wasn't talking about one game. You're absolutely insufferable.
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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 10:38:44 GMT -5
I stand by my initial production replacement numbers. For example, Baker Mayfield, you said he’d have 2780yds and 15tds without Mike Evans. Baker Mayfield had 3725yds and 27tds in 13 starts in 2018 3827 and 22 in 16 games in ‘19 3563 and 26 in 16 games in ‘20 3010 and 17 in 14 games in ‘21 2163 and 10 in 10starts on two different teams in ‘22 So, yea its looking like my numbers were on the low side. The numbers I presented subtracting Mike Evans this year: Baker Mayfield? - Mike Evans (1255 yards - 13 TDs) 2789 yards 15 TDS 10 picks2021 numbers you just gave me 3010 yards 17 TDS (13 picks u left out)
So he was only able to make up 220 yards, 2 TDs through his other receivers when Landry became washed... and added 3 picks Not even close to 700+ yards, 7 TDs, oh and his picks were worse....all 3 of my points proven by you. Thanks for doing the research
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Post by imgrate on Feb 8, 2024 10:43:18 GMT -5
I stand by my initial production replacement numbers. For example, Baker Mayfield, you said he’d have 2780yds and 15tds without Mike Evans. Baker Mayfield had 3725yds and 27tds in 13 starts in 2018 3827 and 22 in 16 games in ‘19 3563 and 26 in 16 games in ‘20 3010 and 17 in 14 games in ‘21 2163 and 10 in 10starts on two different teams in ‘22 So, yea its looking like my numbers were on the low side. The numbers I presented subtracting Mike Evans this year: Baker Mayfield? - Mike Evans (1255 yards - 13 TDs) 2789 yards 15 TDS 10 picks2021 numbers you just gave me 3010 yards 17 TDS (13 picks u left out)
So he was only able to make up 220 yards, 2 TDs through his other receivers when Landry became washed... and added 3 picks Not even close to 700+ yards, 7 TDs, oh and his picks were worse....all 3 of my points proven by you. Thanks for doing the research 2021 was 14 games played. Add 3 more. He averaged 215 yds/game, and more than a td/gm.. so that puts him at 3655yds and 21tds So the low end estimate is 900yds and 6 tds. The other seasons, he was more than 1000yds over and 12 tds in 16 games, so you have to extrapolate out another game..So, really there’s no statistical drop off. Glad I could be of service DJ sucks
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Post by piddy283 on Feb 8, 2024 10:44:45 GMT -5
When it comes to Odunze vs Nabors, and DJ is our QB, I feel like Nabors would be better. I feel like Nabors is more of a "chess piece" who we can utilize from anywhere on the field. DJ can hit him on short routes that he can make big gains, Nabors runs a nice route tree and would be more beneficial to DJ. All that being said, I like Odunze more, but I feel like he wouldn't be properly used with our current QB situation. If we had our franchise QB, I'd be 100% on board with Odunze, he's that prototype X, controls the sidelines, exceptional body control and hands, total red zone nightmare... Sadly we have DJ as our QB. Personally, I'd like to go QB in the 1st, but if we miss on the big 3, we move Neal to OG, and get Onwenu in FA as our new RT, then sure let's take a shot at Odunze, Nabors, or even a trade back for Bowers. If we DONT address our OL in free agency, miss out on the big 3 QBs, sure, I'd throw Alt or Fashanu as 1st round possibilities ahead of WR. I like our WRs and feel like someone like Leggette in the 2nd would be a God send
I agree with everything you said.
Odunze has been my favorite WR up until recently and I think my recent hesitation has more to do with our QB. DJ has never been one to consistently push the ball down the field. I'd be concerned he wouldn't utilize Odunze's strength.
Having one of the big-3 fall to us at #6 is absolutely the ideal situation. If one doesn't fall, I think trading back is ideal situation #2. The depth of talent this year, specifically at OL and WR, is real. The additional picks would go a long way building out this roster and we could still target a QB like Nix or McCarthy later in the 1st.
Whether it's OG or OT doesn't matter to me, but I agree that we need to target a proven OL in FA. I also think we need to draft an OL in the first two rounds. In my opinion, Rd2 is the sweet spot for OL and I won't be upset if we used both picks on OG's or an OG/OT combo.
If we go OL in Rd1 we'll still have plenty of options at WR in Rd2. Legette happens to be one of my early favorites as well. He seems to be a great compliment to what we already have in place. However, Dabs is on the record saying he likes WRs who get open and create separation. There are a handful of those quick as a water bug type WRs like McConkey, Pearsall, Wilson who Dabs may prefer. Again, this draft is littered with all sorts of talent.
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Post by piddy283 on Feb 8, 2024 11:12:58 GMT -5
Ok. I'll play along....IF you can show me proof of a QB that lost his best WR (and he didn't have another #1 target) and put up similar stats, I'll retract my statement Seeing as you will probably reply with a snark response about how "it's common sense" I'll just take the win now Patrick Mahomes had a better year in 2022 after he lost Tyreek Hill, who is probably the best receiver in the NFL.
Slightly better statistics in year one without Tyreek, arguably his worst season statistically in year two without Tyreek.
2021: 4,839 yards 37 TDs 13 INTs 98.5 QBR
2022: 5,250 yards
41 TDs
12 INTs 105.2 QBR
2023: 4,183 yards 27 TDs 14 INTs 92.6 QBR
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Post by dream8 on Feb 8, 2024 11:19:30 GMT -5
I did read...and assumed #1 target was still referring to the WR position as in the loss was not replaced. My apologies to you. Still don't agree with you. Of course you couldn't gut an offense and hope for the same output. But the QB has far more impact on the success of an offense. And our film shows guys open, but a QB1 that doesn't give them the ball. That will happen in every game occasionally, but our guy consistently does not take the shots, even when the play is designed for some of them. Makes defending us real easy when he's under center, especially when you combine it with pretty below average offensive line play. Yeah the production was off the charts without Jones...For me, I come back to the explosive plays and the ceiling of the offense. Tyrod came in this past year and immediately generated a downfield passing attack, we saw him willing to take shots down the field that Jones' wouldn't take. People want to point out Jones' performance in '22 as an example of what he can do but I think we need to step back and re-evaluate what we actually saw last year: Jones did a good job taking what the defense gave him, and was a good runner, but the bottom line is we were last in the entire NFL in explosive pass plays last year. Jones threw for 15 TDs. If Jones played for any other team, I don't think anyone here would respect him off of a year in which he threw for 3200 yards and 15 TDs. The great QBs/offenses generate explosive passing plays. Last year represented the absolute ceiling of what you can get from an offense with Jones at QB. I can't get behind grinding out 9 wins and not being able to compete with the top teams (Eagles, Dallas, SF) as our ceiling. We need to aim higher
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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 11:20:54 GMT -5
The numbers I presented subtracting Mike Evans this year: Baker Mayfield? - Mike Evans (1255 yards - 13 TDs) 2789 yards 15 TDS 10 picks2021 numbers you just gave me 3010 yards 17 TDS (13 picks u left out)
So he was only able to make up 220 yards, 2 TDs through his other receivers when Landry became washed... and added 3 picks Not even close to 700+ yards, 7 TDs, oh and his picks were worse....all 3 of my points proven by you. Thanks for doing the research 2021 was 14 games played. Add 3 more. He averaged 215 yds/game, and more than a td/gm.. so that puts him at 3655yds and 21tds So the low end estimate is 900yds and 6 tds. The other seasons, he was more than 1000yds over and 12 tds in 16 games, so you have to extrapolate out another game..So, really there’s no statistical drop off. Glad I could be of service DJ sucks you're making up numbers again. you can't just add his average to extra games and funny how you keep mentioning DJ because this has nothing to do with him. maybe that's why you're so against my point...you think this is about DJ? obsessive
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Post by idkaname on Feb 8, 2024 11:27:20 GMT -5
Yeah the production was off the charts without Jones... For me, I come back to the explosive plays and the ceiling of the offense. Tyrod came in this past year and immediately generated a downfield passing attack, we saw him willing to take shots down the field that Jones' wouldn't take. People want to point out Jones' performance in '22 as an example of what he can do but I think we need to step back and re-evaluate what we actually saw last year: Jones did a good job taking what the defense gave him, and was a good runner, but the bottom line is we were last in the entire NFL in explosive pass plays last year. Jones threw for 15 TDs. If Jones played for any other team, I don't think anyone here would respect him off of a year in which he threw for 3200 yards and 15 TDs. The great QBs/offenses generate explosive passing plays. Last year represented the absolute ceiling of what you can get from an offense with Jones at QB. I can't get behind grinding out 9 wins and not being able to compete with the top teams (Eagles, Dallas, SF) as our ceiling. We need to aim higher This discussion always dies when I ask the following question... Who (of the recieviers) on this team is creating explosive plays in the pass game? You brought up 2022 so tell me who on that roster took an immense leap in explosive plays in 2023? QBs don't just throw to random guys and create "Explosive plays". Better yet, what are the rankings if we take out passes of 10 yards or less that turned into explosive plays? The 49ers have tons of "explosive plays" and more often than not the ball is throw shorter than the "explosive play range"
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Post by imgrate on Feb 8, 2024 11:33:42 GMT -5
2021 was 14 games played. Add 3 more. He averaged 215 yds/game, and more than a td/gm.. so that puts him at 3655yds and 21tds So the low end estimate is 900yds and 6 tds. The other seasons, he was more than 1000yds over and 12 tds in 16 games, so you have to extrapolate out another game..So, really there’s no statistical drop off. Glad I could be of service DJ sucks you're making up numbers again. you can't just add his average to extra games and funny how you keep mentioning DJ because this has nothing to do with him. maybe that's why you're so against my point...you think this is about DJ? obsessive Your initial post made up numbers, everything thereafter is going to be something made up, the point is to make whatever is “made up” as reasonable as they possibly can be. If you want to compare stats over the course of 14 games to a set of stats over 17 games and not adjust on a per game basis, then by all means, but it will be completely off base. Your initial post mentioned DJ as you were trying to allude that if those other qbs listed didnt have a #1 WR, then their numbers would be just as shitty as DJ’s. However, if you make a reasonable adjustment to their numbers based on what could/would realistically happen if they didnt have that #1 WR, then their numbers would still far outpace DJ’s
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Post by dream8 on Feb 8, 2024 11:42:47 GMT -5
For me, I come back to the explosive plays and the ceiling of the offense. Tyrod came in this past year and immediately generated a downfield passing attack, we saw him willing to take shots down the field that Jones' wouldn't take. People want to point out Jones' performance in '22 as an example of what he can do but I think we need to step back and re-evaluate what we actually saw last year: Jones did a good job taking what the defense gave him, and was a good runner, but the bottom line is we were last in the entire NFL in explosive pass plays last year. Jones threw for 15 TDs. If Jones played for any other team, I don't think anyone here would respect him off of a year in which he threw for 3200 yards and 15 TDs. The great QBs/offenses generate explosive passing plays. Last year represented the absolute ceiling of what you can get from an offense with Jones at QB. I can't get behind grinding out 9 wins and not being able to compete with the top teams (Eagles, Dallas, SF) as our ceiling. We need to aim higher This discussion always dies when I ask the following question... Who (of the recieviers) on this team is creating explosive plays in the pass game? You brought up 2022 so tell me who on that roster took an immense leap in explosive plays in 2023? QBs don't just throw to random guys and create "Explosive plays". Better yet, what are the rankings if we take out passes of 10 yards or less that turned into explosive plays? The 49ers have tons of "explosive plays" and more often than not the ball is throw shorter than the "explosive play range" I watched Darius Slayton catch a 70 and 80 yard TD back to back weeks with Tyrod under center. I saw Jalin Hyatt have 2 games this year where he had multiple catches for 25+ yards against WSH and NE - with Tyrod and Devito under center. The Giants had 9 pass plays of 20+ yards during the first 10 weeks of the season, which ranked 25th in the NFL. Weeks 11-18 they had 14 pass plays of 20+ yards, which ranked 12th in the NFL. The passing game was more vertical without Jones
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Post by jaymas on Feb 8, 2024 12:25:56 GMT -5
Patrick Mahomes had a better year in 2022 after he lost Tyreek Hill, who is probably the best receiver in the NFL.
Slightly better statistics in year one without Tyreek, arguably his worst season statistically in year two without Tyreek.
2021: 4,839 yards 37 TDs 13 INTs 98.5 QBR
2022: 5,250 yards
41 TDs
12 INTs 105.2 QBR
2023: 4,183 yards 27 TDs 14 INTs 92.6 QBR In what will be a long career, Mahomes is going to have some variance just because of...probability. The fact that his basement so far, is this season, amd still produced that, tells me all I need to know about who is most important to the offense. Travis Kelce is the GOAT, but also put up numbers with Alex Smith, this offense and the team took the leap into damn near unstoppable, once that changeover happened and his own numbers still improved slightly. It's not the "#1 target" that drives the offense, it's the QB.
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Post by Kase1 on Feb 8, 2024 12:52:49 GMT -5
When it comes to Odunze vs Nabors, and DJ is our QB, I feel like Nabors would be better. I feel like Nabors is more of a "chess piece" who we can utilize from anywhere on the field. DJ can hit him on short routes that he can make big gains, Nabors runs a nice route tree and would be more beneficial to DJ. All that being said, I like Odunze more, but I feel like he wouldn't be properly used with our current QB situation. If we had our franchise QB, I'd be 100% on board with Odunze, he's that prototype X, controls the sidelines, exceptional body control and hands, total red zone nightmare... Sadly we have DJ as our QB. Personally, I'd like to go QB in the 1st, but if we miss on the big 3, we move Neal to OG, and get Onwenu in FA as our new RT, then sure let's take a shot at Odunze, Nabors, or even a trade back for Bowers. If we DONT address our OL in free agency, miss out on the big 3 QBs, sure, I'd throw Alt or Fashanu as 1st round possibilities ahead of WR. I like our WRs and feel like someone like Leggette in the 2nd would be a God send
If we go OL in Rd1 we'll still have plenty of options at WR in Rd2. Legette happens to be one of my early favorites as well. He seems to be a great compliment to what we already have in place. However, Dabs is on the record saying he likes WRs who get open and create separation. There are a handful of those quick as a water bug type WRs like McConkey, Pearsall, Wilson who Dabs may prefer. Again, this draft is littered with all sorts of talent.
I imagine that would work great for us in this draft, there seems to be a ton of quick separators in this draft. Personally, I thought we were set with that role with WanRob, and finding that dominant alpha X type guy would be the next step, who knows. I feel like this draft has plenty of talent when it comes to OL and WR, depends what kind of guy we're looking for
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Post by SG88 on Feb 8, 2024 12:55:10 GMT -5
Both of these guys are going to be studs in the NFL as long as they go to a team with a QB that can ball and can read a defense.
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Post by Kase1 on Feb 8, 2024 12:55:32 GMT -5
When it comes to Odunze vs Nabors, and DJ is our QB, I feel like Nabors would be better. I feel like Nabors is more of a "chess piece" who we can utilize from anywhere on the field. DJ can hit him on short routes that he can make big gains, Nabors runs a nice route tree and would be more beneficial to DJ. All that being said, I like Odunze more, but I feel like he wouldn't be properly used with our current QB situation. If we had our franchise QB, I'd be 100% on board with Odunze, he's that prototype X, controls the sidelines, exceptional body control and hands, total red zone nightmare... Sadly we have DJ as our QB. Personally, I'd like to go QB in the 1st, but if we miss on the big 3, we move Neal to OG, and get Onwenu in FA as our new RT, then sure let's take a shot at Odunze, Nabors, or even a trade back for Bowers. If we DONT address our OL in free agency, miss out on the big 3 QBs, sure, I'd throw Alt or Fashanu as 1st round possibilities ahead of WR. I like our WRs and feel like someone like Leggette in the 2nd would be a God send I'm not sure Legette drops to the second round especially if he explodes at the combine. As for OL, it's supposedly a very deep OL draft (tackles mostly) so I'd rather go skill at #6 but I really hope they address interior OL in FA. Its tough to say what we are going to do in terms of OL until there is strong confirmation that Neal is a RT... or OG. I feel like its a deep class for Guards this year
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Post by inthezone on Feb 8, 2024 13:14:42 GMT -5
I'm not sure Legette drops to the second round especially if he explodes at the combine. As for OL, it's supposedly a very deep OL draft (tackles mostly) so I'd rather go skill at #6 but I really hope they address interior OL in FA. Its tough to say what we are going to do in terms of OL until there is strong confirmation that Neal is a RT... or OG. I feel like its a deep class for Guards this year The team has to move forward with Neal being a bust. Even if he does become average at either spot his durability is a big issue.
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Post by Kase1 on Feb 8, 2024 13:27:54 GMT -5
Its tough to say what we are going to do in terms of OL until there is strong confirmation that Neal is a RT... or OG. I feel like its a deep class for Guards this year The team has to move forward with Neal being a bust. Even if he does become average at either spot his durability is a big issue. What if we switch him over to LG and he becomes a beast, he wont be a bust at that point. His durability isnt great, but I dont believe thats what would determine him to be a bust or not at this point in his career. His inability to grow, adapt, and compete for a starting role would determine him a bust
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