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Post by Sarcasman on Apr 14, 2020 9:32:09 GMT -5
Christian McCaffrey might be the league's best RB but he's still almost definitely not worth his new contract Carolina made an investment that could limit their ability to improve their roster in the future If there is any running back out there who would seemingly be worth enough to buck the trend of high-dollar running back contracts turning out to be bad values, it's probably McCaffrey. And yet, a closer look at data not all that far beyond the surface level reveals why even this contract to this special of a player is probably not a good idea. Let's just start with the volume. McCaffrey handled 403 touches in 2019. He is wildly unlikely to ever receive that many touches in a single season ever again, considering there have only been 44 400-plus-touch seasons in the history of the league. Only nine players have ever received 400-plus touches more than once, and only five have done it more than twice. The most recent player to have multiple 400-touch seasons was LaDainian Tomlinson, and his last 400-touch campaign came in 2006. McCaffrey is one of the best runners in the league: among the 45 running backs who received at least 100 carries last season, his 4.83 yards per carry average ranked eighth. He's also probably the best receiving back in the league: he had 24 more catches than the next-closest back, and among the group of 13 who caught at least 50 passes in 2019, his yards per reception average ranked fifth. He was the only player to rank in the top 10 in yards per carry and top five in yards per reception. As such, his efficiency for a high-volume player was seemingly off the charts. And when you take a look at similarly high-volume players, that holds up. McCaffrey was one of 51 backs with at least 100 total touches last season. His 5.94 yards per touch average ranked fifth among that group. He was one of just 27 running backs with 200 touches or more, a group among which his yards per touch average ranked second, behind only Austin Ekeler (Saquon ranked 9th). But even among that narrower group, the gap between McCaffrey and the average player was not as large as it seems on the surface. Even if you want to lean on the (very reasonable) idea that there isn't another single back who could handle those 403 touches on his own, well, there's nothing stopping the Panthers from employing a two or even three-back committee and splitting the work among them. Giving two average 200-plus touch running backs 200 touches apiece yields essentially the same result as giving one of those backs the same workload as McCaffrey actually handled. The idea of McCaffrey is such a rare pass-catching running back that he's essentially a running back and a receiver seems appealing, but when you compare his pass-catching production to actual receivers, it falls apart. There have been 107 instances of a wideout catching at least 100 passes in a year. Only two of those 107 averaged less than 10 yards per reception. None averaged fewer than McCaffrey's (career-high) 8.7 mark from last season. The same is true of the five tight ends who have caught at least 100 passes in a season, each of whom averaged at least 9.5 yards per catch. www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/christian-mccaffrey-might-be-the-leagues-best-rb-but-hes-still-almost-definitely-not-worth-his-new-contract/It’s the exact same verse, chorus and refrain for all the skill positions except QB. There’s unicorns in every positional skill group. The very top of each invariably is getting overpaid. And that subset does include QB.
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Post by Roswell on Apr 14, 2020 9:39:58 GMT -5
Can someone please explain to me how having a great RB that touches the ball 25 times a game is not considered a great thing and worth the money?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2020 9:41:06 GMT -5
Can someone please explain to me how having a great RB that touches the ball 25 times a game is not considered a great thing and worth the money? Boredom. What they continue to ignore is that it's all about production not position.
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Post by JoeBigBlue on Apr 14, 2020 9:42:31 GMT -5
LOL,.............and stupidity. ....sheesh....might as well start complaining about how much this year's 1st round draft pick is going to cost 5 years from now. I can't believe what Andrew Thomas' contract is going to be in 2025!
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Post by IrishMike on Apr 14, 2020 9:54:18 GMT -5
Can someone please explain to me how having a great RB that touches the ball 25 times a game is not considered a great thing and worth the money? Boredom. What they continue to ignore is that it's all about production not position. Dan Lebatard was just talking about this. He said they have to pay him as a mix RB/WR because that's what modern RBs are. McCaffery is #2 all time on most catches in his first 3 seasons. He is the Panthers best receiver. He is their offense.
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Post by Sarcasman on Apr 14, 2020 9:54:55 GMT -5
Can someone please explain to me how having a great RB that touches the ball 25 times a game is not considered a great thing and worth the money? Some guy on a website said so. And his fantasy football team finishes in the money most years so....
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Post by TheAnalyst on Apr 14, 2020 10:05:22 GMT -5
Christian McCaffrey might be the league's best RB but he's still almost definitely not worth his new contract Carolina made an investment that could limit their ability to improve their roster in the future If there is any running back out there who would seemingly be worth enough to buck the trend of high-dollar running back contracts turning out to be bad values, it's probably McCaffrey. And yet, a closer look at data not all that far beyond the surface level reveals why even this contract to this special of a player is probably not a good idea. Let's just start with the volume. McCaffrey handled 403 touches in 2019. He is wildly unlikely to ever receive that many touches in a single season ever again, considering there have only been 44 400-plus-touch seasons in the history of the league. Only nine players have ever received 400-plus touches more than once, and only five have done it more than twice. The most recent player to have multiple 400-touch seasons was LaDainian Tomlinson, and his last 400-touch campaign came in 2006. McCaffrey is one of the best runners in the league: among the 45 running backs who received at least 100 carries last season, his 4.83 yards per carry average ranked eighth. He's also probably the best receiving back in the league: he had 24 more catches than the next-closest back, and among the group of 13 who caught at least 50 passes in 2019, his yards per reception average ranked fifth. He was the only player to rank in the top 10 in yards per carry and top five in yards per reception. As such, his efficiency for a high-volume player was seemingly off the charts. And when you take a look at similarly high-volume players, that holds up. McCaffrey was one of 51 backs with at least 100 total touches last season. His 5.94 yards per touch average ranked fifth among that group. He was one of just 27 running backs with 200 touches or more, a group among which his yards per touch average ranked second, behind only Austin Ekeler (Saquon ranked 9th). But even among that narrower group, the gap between McCaffrey and the average player was not as large as it seems on the surface. Even if you want to lean on the (very reasonable) idea that there isn't another single back who could handle those 403 touches on his own, well, there's nothing stopping the Panthers from employing a two or even three-back committee and splitting the work among them. Giving two average 200-plus touch running backs 200 touches apiece yields essentially the same result as giving one of those backs the same workload as McCaffrey actually handled. The idea of McCaffrey is such a rare pass-catching running back that he's essentially a running back and a receiver seems appealing, but when you compare his pass-catching production to actual receivers, it falls apart. There have been 107 instances of a wideout catching at least 100 passes in a year. Only two of those 107 averaged less than 10 yards per reception. None averaged fewer than McCaffrey's (career-high) 8.7 mark from last season. The same is true of the five tight ends who have caught at least 100 passes in a season, each of whom averaged at least 9.5 yards per catch. www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/christian-mccaffrey-might-be-the-leagues-best-rb-but-hes-still-almost-definitely-not-worth-his-new-contract/It’s the exact same verse, chorus and refrain for all the skill positions except QB. There’s unicorns in every positional skill group. The very top of each invariably is getting overpaid. And that subset does include QB. This is true, however, I for one value RB very low on the totem pole as far as value and success for the team. Many feel this way, unicorn or not. And right around when the players contract is expiring (4-5 years) is when the average decrease in production comes in. So 2-3 years from now, when CM starts getting that mega money, his health and production will more than likely drop off. The same will most like happen to SQB, which is why I would be very hesitant to give him that second contract at all, despite him having the ability to be a unicorn (obviously DG overvalued him already by saying he was "Touched by the Hand of God".). Its just not worth it IMO. We saw it already with Gurley. We will start to see it with Zeke. Down the road we will see it with McCaffery IMO. Of course, there is always the unlikely chance he is a dominant RB for 10 years. If we pay him we better hope that is the deal. Now let me clarify this comment. I LOVE watching awesome RBs. SQB when fully healthy and a competent OL will be an amazing thing to watch. He is a well grounded kid (I think) with a great personality. All this could be said for McCaffery too. My issue is, it isnt top RBs on the SB teams for the most part. Its the top QBs. Its the top OLs. Its the top defenses. Time has shown us this. Invest in those areas. Build a solid foundation. Right now, I still dont think we have one (yet).
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Post by IrishMike on Apr 14, 2020 10:33:46 GMT -5
This is true, however, I for one value RB very low on the totem pole as far as value and success for the team. Many feel this way, unicorn or not. And right around when the players contract is expiring (4-5 years) is when the average decrease in production comes in. So 2-3 years from now, when CM starts getting that mega money, his health and production will more than likely drop off. The same will most like happen to SQB, which is why I would be very hesitant to give him that second contract at all, despite him having the ability to be a unicorn (obviously DG overvalued him already by saying he was "Touched by the Hand of God".). Its just not worth it IMO. We saw it already with Gurley. We will start to see it with Zeke. Down the road we will see it with McCaffery IMO. Of course, there is always the unlikely chance he is a dominant RB for 10 years. If we pay him we better hope that is the deal. Now let me clarify this comment. I LOVE watching awesome RBs. SQB when fully healthy and a competent OL will be an amazing thing to watch. He is a well grounded kid (I think) with a great personality. All this could be said for McCaffery too. My issue is, it isnt top RBs on the SB teams for the most part. Its the top QBs. Its the top OLs. Its the top defenses. Time has shown us this. Invest in those areas. Build a solid foundation. Right now, I still dont think we have one (yet). IMO value for every position comes down to a simple thing. Can you replace what that guy is giving you for less money? If you can then you move on. If you can't then you have to ask yourself is the sum of the parts you can get for his money worth moving on? Simplified, the Panthers didn't think they could replace his rushing/receiving yards and TDs for less money, so they paid him.
The Rams on the other hand though they could replace what Gurley was giving them and moved on (injuries probably played a role here). Same thing happened in Pittsburgh when Bell held out. Conner came in and they realized they could replace him, for the most part, for much less money.
The Saints will be next in line to make this decision with Alvin Kamara. We will see what they think when it comes time to pay him.
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Post by TheAnalyst on Apr 14, 2020 10:42:59 GMT -5
This is true, however, I for one value RB very low on the totem pole as far as value and success for the team. Many feel this way, unicorn or not. And right around when the players contract is expiring (4-5 years) is when the average decrease in production comes in. So 2-3 years from now, when CM starts getting that mega money, his health and production will more than likely drop off. The same will most like happen to SQB, which is why I would be very hesitant to give him that second contract at all, despite him having the ability to be a unicorn (obviously DG overvalued him already by saying he was "Touched by the Hand of God".). Its just not worth it IMO. We saw it already with Gurley. We will start to see it with Zeke. Down the road we will see it with McCaffery IMO. Of course, there is always the unlikely chance he is a dominant RB for 10 years. If we pay him we better hope that is the deal. Now let me clarify this comment. I LOVE watching awesome RBs. SQB when fully healthy and a competent OL will be an amazing thing to watch. He is a well grounded kid (I think) with a great personality. All this could be said for McCaffery too. My issue is, it isnt top RBs on the SB teams for the most part. Its the top QBs. Its the top OLs. Its the top defenses. Time has shown us this. Invest in those areas. Build a solid foundation. Right now, I still dont think we have one (yet). IMO value for every position comes down to a simple thing. Can you replace what that guy is giving you for less money? If you can then you move on. If you can't then you have to ask yourself is the sum of the parts you can get for his money worth moving on? Simplified, the Panthers didn't think they could replace his rushing/receiving yards and TDs for less money, so they paid him.
The Rams on the other hand though they could replace what Gurley was giving them and moved on (injuries probably played a role here). Same thing happened in Pittsburgh when Bell held out. Conner came in and they realized they could replace him, for the most part, for much less money.
The Saints will be next in line to make this decision with Alvin Kamara. We will see what they think when it comes time to pay him.
Its odd though because they didnt have to YET unless they feel like he was going to hold out. They still had 2 more years on his contract, plus the tag if needed. I pray we dont give SQB a 4 year contract extension after this season. Especially if its for $18-$20M per season. What I would do if I was given the keys to the Giants right now, is ride out his contract the next 3 years, grinding him as the main workhorse with Gallman and Lewis as the backups, and if I feel like his production is still top line, franchise tag him (Probably about $14M?). Thats 4 more years. He would be 28 after that, and worn.
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Post by Fletch842 on Apr 14, 2020 10:43:56 GMT -5
....sheesh....might as well start complaining about how much this year's 1st round draft pick is going to cost 5 years from now. I can't believe what Andrew Thomas' contract is going to be in 2025! We should trade him while he still has value. DG is such an imgrate!!
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Post by Blue Hulk on Apr 14, 2020 10:55:52 GMT -5
If anyone here believes Saquon will take less than McCaffrey....please speak now or forever hold your piece.
I see the trolls are in here, not being able to debate with logic so they revert to name calling like fools. I never argue with fools
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Post by imgrate on Apr 14, 2020 11:13:13 GMT -5
Can someone please explain to me how having a great RB that touches the ball 25 times a game is not considered a great thing and worth the money? Because RBs are likely not going to continue that throughout that 2nd contract due to the injury risk. Happened with LeVeon, Jamaal Charles, Todd Gurley, DaVonte Freeman, jerick McKinnon, lamar miller, david johnson, DeMarco Murray, just off top of my head. RBs on large contracts just hamper your ability to build a team that can win games, they're either hurt or take up cap space for more impactful positions. I mean the only guys that played well on a big second contract were LeSean McCoy in Buffalo and Adrian Peterson, but those guys couldn't sniff the Super Bowl. You win just enough games to keep you from drafting a top QB and have too much cap tied up to build a top team.
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Post by imgrate on Apr 14, 2020 11:15:24 GMT -5
Not really. When teams start paying all their big talent for individual success, a team is usually at or close to its peak. It closes the door on future potential and that's just the way it is in the salary cap era with the exception of the Pats. Most fans don't give a flying **** if millionaires make a few extra million. They care if their team is stuck with a bad contract that prevents them from improving in the future. Do you actually think that the majority of us care if Barkley makes more than 20 million if he was leading the Giants to playoff victories and the Superbowl? The Giants are one of the worst teams in the NFL at this point and no, actual fans don't like handing out monster contracts while their team hasn't won more than 5 ****ing games in 4 years. No, we don't want the Giants to become the Knicks.... I'm sorry, but I just don't care. The Giants do not pay my bills, make my mortgage payments, or put food on my table. They can spend their money however they want to. The constant losing does suck, but it still isn't my money. If fans want to throw blame at any of this kind of stuff, blame the market and not the team paying players at or above FMV. I mean no disrespect towards fans that care about this stuff a lot. I just don't and won't. You care about draft picks, though right?
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Post by giantlegacy on Apr 14, 2020 11:20:50 GMT -5
If anyone here believes Saquon will take less than McCaffrey....please speak now or forever hold your piece. I see the trolls are in here, not being able to debate with logic so they revert to name calling like fools. I never argue with fools Heh Where I actually bailed after the first page...
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Post by giantlegacy on Apr 14, 2020 11:30:51 GMT -5
OK My take ....
If we do the right thing this draft we delete Soldier and Tate..and Zeitler is off the books after 2021(to be replaced hopefully by Hernandez's 2nd deal..
If we do things right we have Tomlinson and Williams long term...
IMO if you have your lines set you invest most of your cap space in the trenches (most being 50%)... QB gets a major chuck
Let's say we draft for arguments sake Reagor....our dynamic outside guys are now on rookie deals... We have cap space next year for one major splash..ams enough money to frontload a huge guaranteed number in 2021 and 2022...then Jones gets re upped
What I do is what I've been preaching....don't sink a lot of money resigning the recievers...cycle new ones in on rookie deals,so many talented recievers coming into the league every year,don't sink 95 million into a position that seemingly is the easiest one to replace.. Which is why giving Cooper that contract was assenine with how many great recievers Dallas could choose feom...
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Post by giantsrock on Apr 14, 2020 11:45:41 GMT -5
That's fair and at this point I think he's the guy but let's see what year two brings. Another reason why 2020=OL. Can't believe you replied seriously to a mocking post. Why would anyone care at this point about re-signing either one of them? You junior GMs are either too bored or just nuts. Yet you're okay rehashing old arguments about Simmons versus OT over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. LOL
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Post by giantsrock on Apr 14, 2020 11:50:37 GMT -5
This thread will be 15 pages long of bickering. I’ll sit on the sidelines and watch.... The reason why is because people always have their noses in other people's wallets. Fans act like it is their money, when it clearly isn't. You do realize that if they spend poorly it reduces our chance of winning, right?
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Post by giantsrock on Apr 14, 2020 11:53:15 GMT -5
Can someone please explain to me how having a great RB that touches the ball 25 times a game is not considered a great thing and worth the money? Ask a Rams fan. It is a great thing while it lasts, the problem is shelf life.
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Post by Sarcasman on Apr 14, 2020 12:09:27 GMT -5
The reason why is because people always have their noses in other people's wallets. Fans act like it is their money, when it clearly isn't. You do realize that if they spend poorly it reduces are chance of winning, right? Sure. It's just one of the many non causative factors involved.
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Post by SG88 on Apr 14, 2020 12:55:56 GMT -5
The reason why is because people always have their noses in other people's wallets. Fans act like it is their money, when it clearly isn't. You do realize that if they spend poorly it reduces are chance of winning, right? That's not my problem. It is not my money. I care about the Giants, but I don't have any control over what they do. I'm just not getting myself worked up on how they spend THEIR money and use THEIR cap space. If you want to get all riled up over shit like that, more power to you. Like a few people said earlier, who care who gets paid and how much?
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Post by SG88 on Apr 14, 2020 13:01:56 GMT -5
Boredom. What they continue to ignore is that it's all about production not position. Dan Lebatard was just talking about this. He said they have to pay him as a mix RB/WR because that's what modern RBs are. McCaffery is #2 all time on most catches in his first 3 seasons. He is the Panthers best receiver. He is their offense. CMC is a household name that makes the Panthers money off and on the field. He is a superstar player that is fairly being compensated. IMO, part of the reason why the Panthers let Cam Newton go is because they want CMC to be the face of the franchise. I love watching him work.
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Post by roundabout on Apr 14, 2020 13:11:50 GMT -5
Dan Lebatard was just talking about this. He said they have to pay him as a mix RB/WR because that's what modern RBs are. McCaffery is #2 all time on most catches in his first 3 seasons. He is the Panthers best receiver. He is their offense. CMC is a household name that makes the Panthers money off and on the field. He is a superstar player that is fairly being compensated. IMO, part of the reason why the Panthers let Cam Newton go is because they want CMC to be the face of the franchise. I love watching him work. Bingo..That's why the Giants didn't want OBJ around anymore as they prefer Saquon to be the face of the franchise
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2020 13:20:04 GMT -5
You do realize that if they spend poorly it reduces are chance of winning, right? That's not my problem. It is not my money. I care about the Giants, but I don't have any control over what they do. I'm just not getting myself worked up on how they spend THEIR money and use THEIR cap space. If you want to get all riled up over shit like that, more power to you. Like a few people said earlier, who care who gets paid and how much? So......and I'm not trying to be a dick here........why are you even in this thread? The title clearly shows that this is a thread about something you don't care about. The only explanation as to why people care about "other people's money" is cap space. Just like any other decision the staff and front office makes, it directly effects what happens on the field. It's like saying, I don't care what QB we choose because I can't control who they pick.
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Post by SG88 on Apr 14, 2020 13:26:39 GMT -5
That's not my problem. It is not my money. I care about the Giants, but I don't have any control over what they do. I'm just not getting myself worked up on how they spend THEIR money and use THEIR cap space. If you want to get all riled up over shit like that, more power to you. Like a few people said earlier, who care who gets paid and how much? So......and I'm not trying to be a dick here........why are you even in this thread? The title clearly shows that this is a thread about something you don't care about. The only explanation as to why people care about "other people's money" is cap space. Just like any other decision the staff and front office makes, it directly effects what happens on the field. It's like saying, I don't care what QB we choose because I can't control who they pick. I am in this thread for the same reason you were in the QB thread. Lol (I'm not trying to be a dick either my Syracuse friend).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2020 13:28:51 GMT -5
So......and I'm not trying to be a dick here........why are you even in this thread? The title clearly shows that this is a thread about something you don't care about. The only explanation as to why people care about "other people's money" is cap space. Just like any other decision the staff and front office makes, it directly effects what happens on the field. It's like saying, I don't care what QB we choose because I can't control who they pick. I am in this thread for the same reason you were in the QB thread. Lol But.....I was in the QB thread because I DO care about the QB's. Sorry, not following your logic. You've stated NUMEROUS times that this is a subject you don't care about. I don't think I have ever said that I don't care about the QB's.
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Post by SG88 on Apr 14, 2020 13:50:14 GMT -5
I am in this thread for the same reason you were in the QB thread. Lol But.....I was in the QB thread because I DO care about the QB's. Sorry, not following your logic. You've stated NUMEROUS times that this is a subject you don't care about. I don't think I have ever said that I don't care about the QB's. Well you did think that particular was a waste of time, but you kept posting in it anyways. Well, I think my point is taken on this money thing. I won't be adding anything else to the conversation.
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Post by SG88 on Apr 14, 2020 13:50:57 GMT -5
CMC is a household name that makes the Panthers money off and on the field. He is a superstar player that is fairly being compensated. IMO, part of the reason why the Panthers let Cam Newton go is because they want CMC to be the face of the franchise. I love watching him work. Bingo..That's why the Giants didn't want OBJ around anymore as they prefer Saquon to be the face of the franchise I do agree that was definitely part of it.
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Post by BigBlueDog42 on Apr 14, 2020 14:00:25 GMT -5
#1 Barkely is not up yet. If catches 60 to 80 balls a year and rushes for 1200 to 1400 and keeps scoring bunches of TDs maybe he gets paid. Supposedly the cap is set to explode go up a ton but who knows now what the economy will look like going into 2021. Think the boredom has gotten to a new high. All McCaffery's deal did is give teams with backs a picture of what it might look like. we will all see wether a guy who can catch and run it is worth more then a guy who just runs or just catches it. No one is throwing a guy who adds 9 to 12 TDs a year on the freeagent heap unless he is hurt.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2020 14:02:22 GMT -5
But.....I was in the QB thread because I DO care about the QB's. Sorry, not following your logic. You've stated NUMEROUS times that this is a subject you don't care about. I don't think I have ever said that I don't care about the QB's. Well you did think that particular was a waste of time, but you kept posting in it anyways. Well, I think my point is taken on this money thing. I won't be adding anything else to the conversation. Sorry, but those 2 scenarios are not similar in any way. Being opposed to an idea is not the same is not caring about the subject. Like I said, I'm not trying to be a dick, just trying to understand why you would even open a thread about something you have no interest in. There are several threads I have never opened because it's not a subject I care about.
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Post by jb456 on Apr 14, 2020 14:20:40 GMT -5
Not really. When teams start paying all their big talent for individual success, a team is usually at or close to its peak. It closes the door on future potential and that's just the way it is in the salary cap era with the exception of the Pats. Most fans don't give a flying **** if millionaires make a few extra million. They care if their team is stuck with a bad contract that prevents them from improving in the future. Do you actually think that the majority of us care if Barkley makes more than 20 million if he was leading the Giants to playoff victories and the Superbowl? The Giants are one of the worst teams in the NFL at this point and no, actual fans don't like handing out monster contracts while their team hasn't won more than 5 ****ing games in 4 years. No, we don't want the Giants to become the Knicks.... I'm sorry, but I just don't care. The Giants do not pay my bills, make my mortgage payments, or put food on my table (This statement is completely irrelevant to the topic. The only reason why people get annoyed when their team hands out big contracts is the limitation it puts on the teams resources as it relates to the salary cap). They can spend their money however they want to. The constant losing does suck, but it still isn't my money. (Our course it's not your money, my money or and fans money but the fact remains that MONEY IS A MAJOR CONSIDERATION IN THE SALARY CAP ERA) If fans want to throw blame at any of this kind of stuff, blame the market and not the team paying players at or above FMV. I mean no disrespect towards fans that care about this stuff a lot. I just don't and won't. (This topic has a major impact on the game whether you want to talk about it or not. It is consistently discussed among GM's, Coaches and fans. In fact, Cap management is just as important as drafting players.) I added my replies. Money is a big part of the game but you seem to be under the impression that the fans would care about this topic if there wasn't a salary cap. We wouldn't. Also, you do actually care about this topic or you wouldn't join any conversation regarding Free Agency. All of Free Agency is directly related to the cap. The majority of the players come through free agency. Think about how many players a team drafts vs. how many players are on a teams roster.
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