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Post by TEM on Feb 14, 2024 12:27:57 GMT -5
What about immeasurables and intangibles? How do teams factor in weather, field conditions, injuries, opponents and their injuries, and match-ups into their analytics? Especially for a 20-year old QB like McCarthy who hasn't even scratched the surface of potential. They can't be judged the same way as Penix or Nix. Are you saying QBs should be rated differently? That says one thing to me. Day 3
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Post by Rangers13 on Feb 14, 2024 13:50:12 GMT -5
well, a few meaningless wins will likely have the guy they want wearing a Commander and/or Pats uniform. The Giants are in a hope mode. I agree with you but you will never get players and or coaches to lay down if they can win there gonna win all they can do now is try to makes the best possible move if there is a QB they love is there after the top 3 picks. they won games that neither team deserved without laying down
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Post by McCherry on Feb 14, 2024 16:14:49 GMT -5
Especially for a 20-year old QB like McCarthy who hasn't even scratched the surface of potential. They can't be judged the same way as Penix or Nix. Are you saying QBs should be rated differently? That says one thing to me. Day 3 A 20-year old QB with only 3 years of college experience will not be judged the same as a 24 year-old QB with 6 years of college experience.
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Post by piddy283 on Feb 14, 2024 16:21:36 GMT -5
He is def gonna climb, but you can’t overdraft a QB. If you want him, you want him. If you want him, draft him. Same reason I had no problem with Jones at 6. If we dont take him at 6, he may be gone at 17. You don’t get a redo, gotta get your guy Why and how? There is no more film on him. His film is what designated him to what he is ranked, When his play is what it is. Isn't moving up based upon a non-qualifying reason to proclaimed that. You know why GMs are changed at a rate of 20% every offseason. It is because they listen to idiots in the media rank draftees based upon likeability and not skill.
Any sudden change in a players stock is from the media and fans perspective, not the teams. Teams have been scouting most of these players for years. They may make tweaks here and there, but for the most part their boards are set at this point. There isn't going to be a player who suddenly sky rockets up their board between the end of the regular season and the draft.
When the season ends, and the media/fans begin doing their research, that's when we hear reports of a players stock rising and falling. It's not the teams changing their minds on a player, it's the media catching up to what the teams have known for some time. GMs and scouting departments aren't basing their decisions on what they hear in the media.
In terms of McCarthy, I absolutely expect his stock to rise the closer we get to the draft. We're already starting to see it happen. When it's all said and done, I think McCarthy will be considered a day-1 prospect by most of the media and fans, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him go in the top-15.
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Post by inconvenientruth on Feb 14, 2024 17:00:07 GMT -5
Why and how? There is no more film on him. His film is what designated him to what he is ranked, When his play is what it is. Isn't moving up based upon a non-qualifying reason to proclaimed that. You know why GMs are changed at a rate of 20% every offseason. It is because they listen to idiots in the media rank draftees based upon likeability and not skill.
Any sudden change in a players stock is from the media and fans perspective, not the teams. Teams have been scouting most of these players for years. They may make tweaks here and there, but for the most part their boards are set at this point. There isn't going to be a player who suddenly sky rockets up their board between the end of the regular season and the draft.
When the season ends, and the media/fans begin doing their research, that's when we hear reports of a players stock rising and falling. It's not the teams changing their minds on a player, it's the media catching up to what the teams have known for some time. GMs and scouting departments aren't basing their decisions on what they hear in the media.
In terms of McCarthy, I absolutely expect his stock to rise the closer we get to the draft. We're already starting to see it happen. When it's all said and done, I think McCarthy will be considered a day-1 prospect by most of the media and fans, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him go in the top-15.
My favorite is when fans talk about the media/fan mocks as a "source" for when teams are "reaching". Gets me every time His tape shows a round 1 QB, always has, regardless of what we're all hearing from the lame mocks, etc. Fact is few pay attention to the nuance of the position.
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Post by BigBlueDog42 on Feb 14, 2024 17:05:44 GMT -5
I agree with you but you will never get players and or coaches to lay down if they can win there gonna win all they can do now is try to makes the best possible move if there is a QB they love is there after the top 3 picks. they won games that neither team deserved without laying down That is true still can't reverse it wish were top 3 for sure.
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Post by TCHOF on Feb 14, 2024 17:09:12 GMT -5
Especially for a 20-year old QB like McCarthy who hasn't even scratched the surface of potential. They can't be judged the same way as Penix or Nix. Are you saying QBs should be rated differently? That says one thing to me. Day 3 You think that McCarthy is a Day 3 prospect?
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Post by Danke Schoen on Feb 14, 2024 17:23:04 GMT -5
First off the draft only occurs once, so no one actually rises or falls. So what do you mean when you say JJ McCarthy is "going to climb?"
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Post by nobelichickin2025 on Feb 14, 2024 17:33:51 GMT -5
First off the draft only occurs once, so no one actually rises or falls. So what do you mean when you say JJ McCarthy is "going to climb?" Climb mocks, hence climb buzz amongst fans
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Post by Danke Schoen on Feb 14, 2024 22:11:21 GMT -5
So what do you mean when you say JJ McCarthy is "going to climb?" Climb mocks, hence climb buzz amongst fans Yeah I don’t pay any attention to the self-derived “rising up” or “dropping” assessments made by mock draft “specialists” and fans. Never makes any sense.
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Post by TEM on Feb 15, 2024 6:02:16 GMT -5
Why and how? There is no more film on him. His film is what designated him to what he is ranked, When his play is what it is. Isn't moving up based upon a non-qualifying reason to proclaimed that. You know why GMs are changed at a rate of 20% every offseason. It is because they listen to idiots in the media rank draftees based upon likeability and not skill. Not a lot of fans caught this observation in last year's draft. Not only were QB not moved up for in the first round. There were also a bunch of day 1 ranked players picked on day 3. What this is showing is these so-called pre-draft ranking by individuals in the media are not taken as seriously they once were. The betting industry's motivation in ranking the way they do. They're the betting industry. Never ever trust what they say. When a QB is looked at. There should be a series of metrics attached to each game film on him. These are some of the ones I use in ranking. Arm strength, How does he handle pressure? Does his demeanor change with pressure? How does he handle good covered? Does (can) he throw into coverage? What is his percentage in completion differential between wide open and having to thread a needle? Is he safe in his play or is he a risk taker? When he takes risks are they justified? Does he excel playing from behind? (not about win or loss) but does he fold. Outside of Arm strength. What I listed not skill set. They are personality traits that interview process will never divulge. Film is all seeing. This is where analytics can build a draft profile better than prospecting. A QB can look lights out great three quarters of the time in the NCAA because of the nature of the college game. That 25% of the time it is NFL like. How he handles those situations is what is needed to be revealed. Not how good he looks when it is easy. The evaluation process takes time. GM's don't listen to the media, it's the other way around. Players only seem to "rise" when the media's catches up to the scouting community. The senior bowl, player interviews and character assessments all play into the direction of a players stock post college season. A player like JJ gets overlooked at the end of the college season because of all the attention other players are getting. A college QB's play is not what it is, it's only judged by what it can be in the NFL. JJ isn't rising, his value is simply being acknowledged. If they are not listening to the media why is there a 20% every season. PS: Draft ranking by teams are not shared. JJ was overlooked because he lacks something in his game the NFL requires. He either has it or he doesn't. It is very binary with QBs. He is a late 2nd or later draftee. He does not even compare in talent with the best 2nd round QBs that came out of the draft.
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Post by TEM on Feb 15, 2024 6:22:24 GMT -5
Are you saying QBs should be rated differently? That says one thing to me. Day 3 You think thatd McCarthy is a Day 3 prospect? I do not think he matches up to the best 2nd round QBs that came into the league, does he have the same as Randle Cunningham in skill? If he is going in the second let alone in the 1st round. Guys like Randell should be the bar that needs to be measured against, I do not see it. I see more like Steve Beuerlein. He can come in and fill in . But that is all I see. He may have a good season or 2 in his career. That is all I see. A day 3 pick. The NFL has plenty of examples of what a top 10, 1st round, 2nd round..... skills should be.. Because those thresholds are not adhered to is one of the reason the failure rates on QBs are the highest of any position drafted. It is not just QB the draft in its entirety is under 40%. 60% of picks fail. The NFL is going into its 90th draft this year. 13,500 + draftee examples. There is plenty of data available to build a highly accurate model on what round a player should be drafted in. Yet the failure rates are as if the project just started.
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Post by Analyst on Feb 15, 2024 8:08:50 GMT -5
But real scouts were looking. The projections are made by amateurs looking for clicks. The whole mock culture is mind boggling. McCarthy is going somewhere on draft day. The team that takes him will have studied him inside and out and value him where they select him. At the end of the day there are only 32 draft boards that teams dont share. Everything else is for entertainment only. He is mediocre at best. To me he looks like Blake Bortles more than Drew Brees who was 2nd round pick. I honestly wasn't that impressed with him either watching him play... Way too inconsistent. Much like Drake Maye. That said, you never know. I think JJMC goes in the top 10. Maye goes top 3. Daniels is a high risk high reward type. Love his tape, but has to be in the right system with the right coaching. Caleb Williams same, needs to stay grounded. His personality is my biggest concern. He is very sensitive. NY media could eat him alive. I was moving with the Penix momentum until that game in the playoffs vs Michigan. He was a deer in headlights. Looked bad. Then got hurt.
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Post by piddy283 on Feb 15, 2024 8:36:49 GMT -5
You think thatd McCarthy is a Day 3 prospect? I do not think he matches up to the best 2nd round QBs that came into the league, does he have the same as Randle Cunningham in skill? If he is going in the second let alone in the 1st round. Guys like Randell should be the bar that needs to be measured against, I do not see it. I see more like Steve Beuerlein. He can come in and fill in . But that is all I see. He may have a good season or 2 in his career. That is all I see. A day 3 pick. The NFL has plenty of examples of what a top 10, 1st round, 2nd round..... skills should be.. Because those thresholds are not adhered to is one of the reason the failure rates on QBs are the highest of any position drafted. It is not just QB the draft in its entirety is under 40%. 60% of picks fail. The NFL is going into its 90th draft this year. 13,500 + draftee examples. There is plenty of data available to build a highly accurate model on what round a player should be drafted in. Yet the failure rates are as if the project just started.
If Randle Cunningham is the bar for 2nd round QBs I see no reason to draft one in the 1st.
Every draft is different. If a specific year doesn't have players who fit your idea of what a "X" round player should look like, the team still has to pick.
One great thing about football, and sports in general, is you can't base decisions solely on a bunch of analytics. Especially when it comes to the draft. You can use it as a guide in certain instances, but looking at 13,500+ draft examples will not give you a highly accurate model of what round a player should be drafted.
When it comes to the draft, the eye test is without a doubt the best tool for evaluating. If you can't pass the eye test, I don't care what the analytics say.
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Post by cdngfan on Feb 15, 2024 8:47:14 GMT -5
Climb mocks, hence climb buzz amongst fans Yeah I don’t pay any attention to the self-derived “rising up” or “dropping” assessments made by mock draft “specialists” and fans. Never makes any sense. Agree. I always get a kick out of mocks and rising falling stock. The amount of work put into them is a joke. Someone looks at our roster, decides where we suck, then looks at what’s available when we pick, and they “decide” we’ll pick the player with the most hype in a position of need. Right now 75% of the mocks I see has us picking a WR. The other 20% has us picking a OT. The last 5 have us moving up for a QB. Maybe one of those is right. But none of them take into consideration how much our GM loves draft picks. I think, given our needs (lots)and the depth in this draft of a few key positions for us, we’re likely to trade down. I’m just some dumb fan, but that’s already more strategic analysis for mocking our pick than 5-6 other mocks combined.
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Post by nobelichickin2025 on Feb 15, 2024 8:51:46 GMT -5
Things I look for in a QB:
1) Ability to go through progressions quickly, that has to be visible on film
2) Ability to throw guys open, not throw to a receiver at a spot, but throw to where a receiver will be
3) Velocity to eat 10-20 yards downfield.
4) Aggression into tight spaces
5) Pocket awareness, spacial awareness
6) Extroverted personality, I do not want another socially awkward, quiet QB. We need an Alpha.
7) Accuracy, which is not completion %. There is a difference between a completion and an accurate completion where a WR can get YAC.
To me McCarthy checks these boxes and is very young. We have good coaches in place to mold a rookie QB. I think he checks more than Drake Maye personally.
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Post by TCHOF on Feb 15, 2024 9:42:47 GMT -5
He is mediocre at best. To me he looks like Blake Bortles more than Drew Brees who was 2nd round pick. I honestly wasn't that impressed with him either watching him play... Way too inconsistent. Much like Drake Maye. That said, you never know. I think JJMC goes in the top 10. Maye goes top 3. Daniels is a high risk high reward type. Love his tape, but has to be in the right system with the right coaching. Caleb Williams same, needs to stay grounded. His personality is my biggest concern. He is very sensitive. NY media could eat him alive. I was moving with the Penix momentum until that game in the playoffs vs Michigan. He was a deer in headlights. Looked bad. Then got hurt. Schoen has preached draft value since he got here, so I don't see him taking QB4 at pick #6. If we go QB, I think that it will be in a trade up scenario in the first round, maybe a trade-up into the bottom of the first or a developmental guy later in the draft.
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Post by Rangers13 on Feb 15, 2024 9:54:51 GMT -5
Been making the rounds. Sharing
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Post by TCHOF on Feb 15, 2024 9:59:10 GMT -5
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Post by Rangers13 on Feb 15, 2024 10:03:39 GMT -5
it has been on a few sites and claims over at BBI is Tiki was speaking about it this morning. Appears to be here too
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Post by Analyst on Feb 15, 2024 10:16:16 GMT -5
"..... PS, here is a coupon for a free medium Pepsi to help ease your worries when you come back to Metlife."
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Post by TCHOF on Feb 15, 2024 10:18:51 GMT -5
it has been on a few sites and claims over at BBI is Tiki was speaking about it this morning. Appears to be here too Man, I can't fathom that he would put out a letter like that. Jeez
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Post by McCherry on Feb 15, 2024 10:28:27 GMT -5
Yeah I don’t pay any attention to the self-derived “rising up” or “dropping” assessments made by mock draft “specialists” and fans. Never makes any sense. Agree. I always get a kick out of mocks and rising falling stock. The amount of work put into them is a joke. Someone looks at our roster, decides where we suck, then looks at what’s available when we pick, and they “decide” we’ll pick the player with the most hype in a position of need. Right now 75% of the mocks I see has us picking a WR. The other 20% has us picking a OT. The last 5 have us moving up for a QB. Maybe one of those is right. But none of them take into consideration how much our GM loves draft picks. I think, given our needs (lots)and the depth in this draft of a few key positions for us, we’re likely to trade down. I’m just some dumb fan, but that’s already more strategic analysis for mocking our pick than 5-6 other mocks combined. Rising/falling happens every draft, but I think it's a perception by the media as they update their guesswork. A couple months ago McCarthy was an afterthought. Now he's being discussed as a top-10 projection. Did he actually become more valuable, or is the media just catching up with reality of how teams are viewing the player?
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Post by Danke Schoen on Feb 15, 2024 10:33:19 GMT -5
You think thatd McCarthy is a Day 3 prospect? I do not think he matches up to the best 2nd round QBs that came into the league, does he have the same as Randle Cunningham in skill? If he is going in the second let alone in the 1st round. Guys like Randell should be the bar that needs to be measured against, I do not see it. I see more like Steve Beuerlein. He can come in and fill in . But that is all I see. He may have a good season or 2 in his career. That is all I see. A day 3 pick. The NFL has plenty of examples of what a top 10, 1st round, 2nd round..... skills should be.. Because those thresholds are not adhered to is one of the reason the failure rates on QBs are the highest of any position drafted. It is not just QB the draft in its entirety is under 40%. 60% of picks fail. The NFL is going into its 90th draft this year. 13,500 + draftee examples. There is plenty of data available to build a highly accurate model on what round a player should be drafted in. Yet the failure rates are as if the project just started. Do you set the bar for every position in every round by finding the best player, at the position, to ever be selected in the respective round? For example every QB selected in the 3rd round should be measured against Joe Montana? Every QB selected in the 6th round measured against Brady? Every DE selected in the 2nd measured against Strahan? Etc Seems highly illogical and silly IMO
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Post by Danke Schoen on Feb 15, 2024 10:34:26 GMT -5
Agree. I always get a kick out of mocks and rising falling stock. The amount of work put into them is a joke. Someone looks at our roster, decides where we suck, then looks at what’s available when we pick, and they “decide” we’ll pick the player with the most hype in a position of need. Right now 75% of the mocks I see has us picking a WR. The other 20% has us picking a OT. The last 5 have us moving up for a QB. Maybe one of those is right. But none of them take into consideration how much our GM loves draft picks. I think, given our needs (lots)and the depth in this draft of a few key positions for us, we’re likely to trade down. I’m just some dumb fan, but that’s already more strategic analysis for mocking our pick than 5-6 other mocks combined. Rising/falling happens every draft, but I think it's a perception by the media as they update their guesswork. A couple months ago McCarthy was an afterthought. Now he's being discussed as a top-10 projection. Did he actually become more valuable, or is the media just catching up with reality of how teams are viewing the player? They’re not updating guesswork. What would that recalibration be based on? These players are literally doing nothing at the moment. They’re revising and updating their mocks so that they get clicks in the offseason.
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mendy
Starter
Posts: 3,891
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Post by mendy on Feb 15, 2024 10:39:13 GMT -5
LOL, thank you. Seems a little early for April Fools day!
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Post by Danke Schoen on Feb 15, 2024 10:40:58 GMT -5
With AI who knows what to believe anymore.
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Post by inconvenientruth on Feb 15, 2024 10:42:05 GMT -5
it has been on a few sites and claims over at BBI is Tiki was speaking about it this morning. Appears to be here too haha im more curious what the fan wrote to instigate this response.
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Post by Danke Schoen on Feb 15, 2024 10:43:28 GMT -5
it has been on a few sites and claims over at BBI is Tiki was speaking about it this morning. Appears to be here too haha im more curious what the fan wrote to instigate this response. “Please sell the team.”
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Post by McCherry on Feb 15, 2024 10:52:25 GMT -5
Rising/falling happens every draft, but I think it's a perception by the media as they update their guesswork. A couple months ago McCarthy was an afterthought. Now he's being discussed as a top-10 projection. Did he actually become more valuable, or is the media just catching up with reality of how teams are viewing the player? They’re not updating guesswork. What would that recalibration be based on? These players are literally doing nothing at the moment. They’re revising and updating their mocks so that they get clicks in the offseason. The Senior bowl is an evaluation process, especially for the QB's. Closer to the draft, combine, player interviews, background checks also have an impact on seeding. We've seen past drafts where players have moved up and down the mocks with some accuracy. Mocks are based on something, I don't agree that it's all just throwing darts at the wall for clicks.
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